As Nathaniel and I discussed earlier, dynamics in the Texas state legislative elections have been particularly contentious this year, with the governor and Trump endorsing at least eight challengers to Republican incumbents in the state House. As of now, seven of those challengers are currently leading their primaries, though a few look headed to a runoff. One challenger, Barry Wernick in the 108th, is trailing by just 2 points.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

ABC News projects that Biden will win the Minnesota Democratic primary, and Trump will win the Republican primary. Biden’s win is expected, but also salt in the wound for his highest-profile competitor, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, who gave up a safe seat in Congress and the potential for a strong statewide run in a few years to launch his no-shot challenge against Biden.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ABC News projects that Trump will win the Massachusetts primary, his 10th win of the evening. With 15 percent of the expected vote reporting, Trump is leading Haley in the Bay State 59 percent to 37 percent. Yet again, this is another state where Haley was hoping to do well: Massachusetts has a lot of college graduates, and it allows independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. But with Trump’s win, the Haley campaign turns its lonely eyes to Vermont.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 56 percent of the expected vote now reporting, Trump has opened up a bit of a lead against Haley in Vermont. He has half the vote, and Haley is just behind him with 47 percent. Still, that's closer than the two polls, had us expecting. There's still room for Haley to pull out a win, which she would need: all of the state's 17 primary delegates go to the winner. That is, unless they both end up with under 50 percent of the vote, in which case they split the delegates proportionally.

—Monica Potts, 538

As Monica just noted, about the only drama in the presidential primary contests tonight can be found in Vermont, where Haley actually might defeat Trump in a traditional, state-run primary (unlike the party-run primary she won in Washington, D.C., over the weekend).

So, what's going on in Vermont? Fundamentally, the Republican primary electorate just isn't as conservative in Vermont. I've been using the 2016 Republican nomination race as a back-of-the-napkin guide to the makeup of the GOP electorate this year, and it's been useful. At this point, we could split the GOP into two parts: those who voted for Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, who tend to make up the Trumpier part of the GOP now; and those who backed Marco Rubio and John Kasich, who aren't as inclined to back Trump. Looking at how the Super Tuesday states voted in 2016, you'll notice that Vermont is the only state voting today in which the combined vote share for Rubio and Kasich outdistanced the Trump, Cruz and Carson cohort.

Back in 2016, the types of voters who backed Rubio and Kasich tended to be more moderate and more likely to hold a four-year college degree. In that sense, they attracted parts of the GOP coalition (and beyond) that make up much of Haley's coalition this year. As we already discussed, some Democratic-leaning voters may have helped Haley in every contest, and Vermont happens to also be a very blue state full of those voters.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538