SNEAK PEEK: Super(califragilisticexpialidocious) Tuesday
A Primary Day Unlike Any Other
February 4, 2008 -- 1 days until Super Tuesday
Rest up tonight, because Super Tuesday is most certainly going to be a late night.
Twenty-four states, four time zones and a whole lot of delegates at stake.
On the Democratic side: 22 states voting and 1681 delegates at stake. A candidate needs 2025 to win the nomination.
On the Republican side: 21 states voting and 1038 delegates at stake. A candidate needs 1191 to win the nomination.
A few things to put on Post-it notes and stick on your computer monitor:
-- There are no horse race numbers from exit polling until after polls have closed.
-- In 10 out of 21 states, Republicans award all of the delegates to the statewide winner.
-- There are no winner take all states on the Democratic side. So while there are 370 Democratic delegates at stake in California, they will be divided up between the candidates.
-- The first results will come from the West Virginia Republican convention. Georgia polls close first at 7 pm ET and Alaska finishes the night at 12 am ET.
Here are the top five states to watch:
California:
Democratic primary – open (independents can vote)
Polls open: 10 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 11 p.m. ET
370 delegates at stake, awarded proportionally
Republican primary – closed (independents cannot vote)
Polls open: 10 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 11 p.m. ET;
170 delegates at stake, awarded via congressional district and winner take all
The nation's most populous state also sends the most delegates to both parties' conventions. California is a nation unto itself, with broad racial and ethnic diversity, and this is the one state that could provide the biggest boost of momentum moving forward.
On the Democratic side, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has been surging in polls despite the wide lead New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has long held. The Golden State will test the depth of Clinton's support among Latino voters, and both candidates' appeal to independents, who can vote in the Democratic primary but not the Republican one. It could also give an indication of the value of the Kennedy name in backing Obama; California first lady Maria Shriver joined cousin Caroline and uncle Ted in supporting Obama, and plenty of Kennedys have been working the state hard.
Among the Republicans, this is one of the few states that awards delegates based on congressional districts. Knowing that he can't afford a wipeout in the biggest state to vote, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has made California a late priority, and he hopes the Republican-only makeup of the primary electorate will give him a boost over Arizona Sen. John McCain. The latest polls show conflicting results, leaving the state up for grabs.
Missouri
Democratic primary – open
Polls open: 7 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
72 delegates at stake, proportional
Republican primary – open
Polls open: 7 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
58 delegates at stake, winner take all
The classic bellwether state is wide open on both sides, with key elected leaders supporting all four major candidates. Big coastal states are voting Tuesday, but this is the big prize of the Midwest.
For the Democrats, the state is a test of Obama's red-state appeal. Sen. Claire McCaskill has been outspoken in voicing concerns that Clinton would hurt other Democratic candidates this fall, and Obama is hoping his appeal to independents and Republicans gives him an edge over Clinton despite some of her structural advantages, through labor unions and the help of former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt.
On the Republican side, McCain is banking on a big turnout from independents, and for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to siphon votes from Romney among social conservatives. Romney boasts of the endorsements of Gov. Matt Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, who is working the state hard for Romney.
New Jersey
Democratic Primary – open to Democrats and new Democrats who have never voted in a primary
Polls open: 6 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
107 delegates at stake, proportional
Republican Primary – semiclosed (open to new party members and new registered voters who have not voted in a primary)
Polls open: 6 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
52 delegates at stake, winner take all
This was supposed to be wrapped up by Clinton and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who hail from neighboring New York. But Giuliani's exit from the race has scrambled the GOP's equations, and Obama is keeping it close.
For the Democrats, Clinton still looks likely to prevail, but Obama could do much better than anyone expected, minimizing Clinton's delegate edge. Obama has returned repeatedly to the Garden State, and he has the support of former Sen. Bill Bradley and Newark Mayor Cory Booker, forcing Clinton to defend her backyard.
The contest holds less suspense on the Republican side, where Giuliani's exit leaves the state firmly in McCain's column.
Tennessee:
Democratic primary – open
Polls open: 7 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
68 delegates at stake, proportional
Republican primary – open
Polls open: 7 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
52 delegates at stake, congressional district winner take all
A key Southern state that provides particular demographic challenges, and is a toss-up on both sides.
For the Democrats, polls show Clinton with an edge in the state that neighbors her husband's native Arkansas, but both candidates have campaigned extensively in Tennessee. Black voters are expected to make up between 25 percent and 30 percent of the Democratic vote _ a sizeable chunk, but nowhere near the margin that helped Obama sweep to victory in South Carolina, so he'll need to attract white voters to stay competitive.
For the Republicans, Fred Thompson's fade has left a muddled race, and the former Tennessee senator's name remains on the ballot; he could also get a sizeable vote from absentee voting, with more than 320,000 votes cast in advance. Tennessee is perhaps Huckabee's biggest chance for another significant victory, but if he falls short, he could power a McCain victory by taking conservative votes away from Romney.
Connecticut:
Democratic primary – closed
Polls open: 6 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
48 delegates at stake, proportional
Republican primary – closed
Polls open: 6 a.m. ET;
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET;
27 delegates at stake, winner take all
A toss-up state that stands at the crossroads of several campaigns' strategies.
On the Democratic side, Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has stayed neutral after leaving the race, though Obama has picked up some of Dodd's big-name backers. Connecticut, like New Jersey, is Clinton's backyard, however, and she has long counted on sweeping the tri-state area Tuesday.
For the Republicans, this was a Giuliani stronghold that now appears poised to support McCain. Though Romney lives in adjoining Massachusetts, McCain has strong appeal in the Nutmeg State, and he is campaigning extensively with independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and has the support of Gov. Jodi Rell.
And don't forget…Georgia – delegate rich (87 at stake on the Democratic side) and possibly a must-win for Obama. A win here could keep Huckabee in the race
Massachusetts – Obama's support from the Kennedy clan, John Kery and Gov. Patrick may this state competitive.
Arizona – Gov. Napolitano's support of Obama could help him cut into Clinton's vote here.
New York – It's the second-biggest state voting Tuesday and it's Clinton's home turf. But look at the margin to see how much Obama can cut into her support here, especially in New York City.
On the campaign trail. . .
JOHN MCCAIN
-- 7:00 am ET: Attends rally with Rudy Giuliani and Tom Ridge, New York City, NY
-- 4:00 pm ET: Attends rally with voters, San Diego, CA
-- 4:50 pm ET: Holds media availability, San Diego, CA
-- 7:00 pm ET: Casts vote in the Arizona Republican Primary, Phoenix, AZ
-- 6:30 pm ET: Holds media availability, Phoenix, AZ
-- 11:00 pm ET: Attends election night event with voters, Phoenix, AZ
MITT ROMNEY
-- 8:00 am ET: Attends West Virginia Delegate Convention Meet and Greet, Charleston, WV
-- 9:50 am ET: Speaks to state delegates at West Virginia Republican State Convention, Charleston, WV
-- 10:20 am ET: Holds media availability, Charleston, WV
-- 7:30 pm ET: Attends election night event with voters, Boston, MA
MIKE HUCKABEE
-- 8:00 pm ET: Attends election night event with voters, Little Rock, AK
RON PAUL
-- 9:30 am ET: Speaks to state delegates at West Virginia Republican State Convention, Charleston, WV
-- Conducts various interviews with multiple media outlets
As for the Democrats. . .
BARACK OBAMA
-- 6:00 pm ET: Attends election night event with voters, Chicago, IL
HILLARY CLINTON
-- 8:00 pm ET: Attends election night event with voters, New York, NY
MIKE GRAVEL
-- 9:00 pm ET: Attends event with voters, Berkeley, CA
At the White House. . .
PRESIDENT BUSH
-- 1:05 pm ET: Participates in photo opportunity with the 2007 Nextel Cup Champion, Washington, DC
POLITICAL NEWS STORIES AT ABCNEWS.COM
ABC News' Rick Klein, Karen Travers, Teddy Davis and Tahman Bradley Report: Super Tuesday Cheat Sheet LINK
ABC News' Kate Snow, Eloise Harper and Sunlen Miller Report: Clinton, Obama Making Last 'Super' Push LINK
ABC News' Jennifer Parker Reports: Limbaugh: McCain Out to Destroy GOP for 2000 S.C. Defeat LINK
ABC News' Ron Claiborne Reports: Republican Candidates Fight to the Finish LINK
ABC News' Deborah Roberts, Chris Strathmann and Imaeyen Ibanga Report: One-on-One with 'The Closer': Michelle Obama LINK
ABC News' Jennifer Parker Reports: Democratic Women Torn Between Clinton and Obama LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper Reports: Politics and the Pulpit LINK
ABC News' Gary Langer and Peyton Craighill Report: Public Sees Recession; Stimulus Plan Draws Skepticism LINK
ABC News' John Berman, Ursula Fahy and Matt Stuart Report: Romney Ties One On LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper Reports: Military Donors Back Ron Paul & Obama LINK
ABC News' Kate Snow, Eloise Harper and Ann Compton Report: An Interesting Clinton Coincidence LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper Reports: Obama & Romney Misfire on Guns LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper Reports: Bill: Hillary = RFK, Obama = Gene McCarthy LINK
ABC News' David Wright, Andy Fies and Sunlen Miller Report: Robert De Niro Hits Trail for Obama LINK
ABC News' Jake Tapper Reports: Hitting the Airwaves LINK
POLITICAL VIDEO AT ABCNEWS.COM
Limbaugh Rails McCainRush Limbaugh says only "pro-choicers" and liberals will vote for McCain.
De Niro on the Trail for ObamaThe actor introduces Obama with back-handed compliment at a N.J. campaign event.
Bill Clinton Mixes Worship and Politics The former president says he went to black churches to stump for his wife.
Cutting the PorkPresident Bush is leading the charge against wasteful spending.
Hasselbeck: Clinton's 'Dangerous' Plan The "View" co-host fears New York senator's health-care plan.
Democrats in HollywoodWith one day left before Super Tuesday, the candidates are bringing out the stars.
McCain Keeps Up the FightHis campaign continues to gain momentum, but he's going up against some harsh critics.
A Wing and a Prayer for Romney?Many people are asking just how much hope is left for Mitt Romney.
George Gets Down to BusinessABC's Chief Washington Correspondent talks about the what's coming Super Tuesday.
Candidates Take to the AirThe candidates have been on an air-time buying frenzy in preparation for Super Tuesday.