False. Unemployment was near historical lows under Trump. However, growth in gross domestic product was well below what previous presidents achieved, and other metrics such as wages and business investment ranged from decent to mediocre.

The annual increases in GDP under Trump were broadly similar to what they were during the final six years under his predecessor, Barack Obama. And GDP growth under Trump was well below that of prior presidents.

-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

The third topic of the debate is immigration, and unlike abortion, this is Trump's strong suit. In our 538/Ipsos poll, voters said 56% to 44% that Trump would handle immigration better than Biden. That made immigration Trump's strongest issue out of all the ones we asked about.

-538’s Nathaniel Rakich

Biden stumbled as he attacked Trump and defended his own record, pausing for several seconds.

The president was discussing domestic programs he hoped to be able to invest in with the money that would be gained by taxes the wealthiest Americans before trailing off and pausing, ultimately saying "we beat Medicare."

"He did beat Medicare, he beat it to death," Trump responded.

The second topic of tonight’s debate is abortion. This is good turf for Biden: Abortion rights are broadly popular and have become even more so since Dobbs. In our 538/Ipsos poll released this morning, likely voters said 57% to 43% that Biden would handle abortion policy better than Trump.

-538’s Nathaniel Rakich

Heading into tonight's event, Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest. 538's presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election. This falls in line with our national polling average, which has the two candidates just about tied at 41%, with Kennedy polling at 9%.

But as readers know, U.S. presidential elections aren't decided by the national popular vote. Instead, they're decided by the Electoral College, where the results in individual states determine who wins each state's electoral votes, with a majority of 270 out of 538 in total necessary to claim victory. Currently, the forecast shows an extremely tight race in each of the most pivotal states.

For instance, Biden's path to victory may rest primarily on winning the Frost Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he carried in 2020. While the forecast shows him with small leads in each of those states, Biden's advantage is well inside the range of potential outcomes, meaning Trump could easily carry them once we get to November. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow edge in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, but similarly his leads are far from secure.

Still, with nearly four months to go until Election Day, there's a great deal of uncertainty around where public opinion will stand when voters cast their ballots. 538's forecast utilizes a combination of polling information and campaign fundamentals, such as the economic situation and each state's partisan leanings. Together, those indicators show a toss-up race that could go in either direction.

Now, tonight's debate could move the contest: Historically, the margin in presidential races has shifted by an average of about 2 points in the two weeks following the first general election debate in cycles dating back to 1976. In what could be bad news for Biden, that movement has more often than not gone against the incumbent president or party. Yet we're still sailing in uncharted waters. After all, this election involves both a sitting and former president, an unprecedented matchup in modern times. The debate is history-making, too: It's nearly three months earlier than any past general election face-off.

-538's Geoffrey Skelley