For the most part, tonight's debate revealed nothing new about what Biden and Trump think on major issues from the economy, immigration, foreign policy and reproductive rights.

Each candidate reiterated positions they've already touted countless times on the campaign stump.

Instead, they largely focused on criticizing each other's past records and lobbing personal attacks.

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Presidential debate highlights

In his two-minute closing argument, Trump went after Biden's record abroad in a personal attack.

"They don't respect you throughout the world," he said.

Trump said he had the largest tax cut and the largest regulation cuts in history, but the country is now "exploding."

"We're a failing nation, but it's not going to be failing anymore," he said. "We're going to make it great again."

Trump went to other topics when asked if he would accept the results of the 2024 election and had to be asked the question several times.

The former president finally responded, "If it's a fair and legal and good election absolutely," before adding that he would have accepted the last election if not for "the fraud." There was no evidence of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.

Biden pushed back that Trump's fraud claims were debunked by courts, telling him, "You can't stand the loss."

"I doubt you'll accept it because you're a whiner," he said.

"We have made significant progress from the debacle that was left by President Trump in his last term," Biden said.

Biden then went on to summarize some of his signature policies. On the economy, he vowed he will not raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000 a year and to continue his work to reduce health care costs, child care costs and give families financial breathing room.

"We're going to continue to fight to bring down inflation and give people a break," Biden said in closing.

Heading into tonight's event, Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest. 538's presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election. This falls in line with our national polling average, which has the two candidates just about tied at 41%, with Kennedy polling at 9%.

But as readers know, U.S. presidential elections aren't decided by the national popular vote. Instead, they're decided by the Electoral College, where the results in individual states determine who wins each state's electoral votes, with a majority of 270 out of 538 in total necessary to claim victory. Currently, the forecast shows an extremely tight race in each of the most pivotal states.

For instance, Biden's path to victory may rest primarily on winning the Frost Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he carried in 2020. While the forecast shows him with small leads in each of those states, Biden's advantage is well inside the range of potential outcomes, meaning Trump could easily carry them once we get to November. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow edge in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, but similarly his leads are far from secure.

Still, with nearly four months to go until Election Day, there's a great deal of uncertainty around where public opinion will stand when voters cast their ballots. 538's forecast utilizes a combination of polling information and campaign fundamentals, such as the economic situation and each state's partisan leanings. Together, those indicators show a toss-up race that could go in either direction.

Now, tonight's debate could move the contest: Historically, the margin in presidential races has shifted by an average of about 2 points in the two weeks following the first general election debate in cycles dating back to 1976. In what could be bad news for Biden, that movement has more often than not gone against the incumbent president or party. Yet we're still sailing in uncharted waters. After all, this election involves both a sitting and former president, an unprecedented matchup in modern times. The debate is history-making, too: It's nearly three months earlier than any past general election face-off.

-538's Geoffrey Skelley