Trump, who had yet to clarify his stance on abortion medication, said he would not block access to the drug if elected.

Biden said he inherited 9% inflation. This is false. In January 2021, year-over-year inflation was about 1.4%. It peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. It's now down to 3.3%. During Trump's time in office, inflation rose by 7.76% from January 2017 to January 2021, and year-over-year inflation peaked at 2.9% in July 2018.

-538's Kaleigh Rogers

Biden accused Trump of not taking the coronavirus pandemic seriously, saying Trump told Americans, "It's not that serious. Just inject a little bleach in your arm." That's Mostly False.

Trump's 2020 comments about treatments were criticized, but he didn't tell people to inject bleach. At a 2020 White House press briefing, Trump asked William Bryan, an undersecretary at the Department of Homeland Security, to study whether ultraviolet light could be effective "inside the body" to treat COVID-19 or whether disinfectants could combat the virus "by injection inside."

After Bryan said his lab did not study disinfectant injection, Trump clarified that using disinfectants "would not be through injection." Trump later told reporters he was being "sarcastic" when referring to injections.

-Analysis by Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

Asked how he would ensure that his plan to impose a 10% tariff on all goods coming to the U.S. wouldn't drive prices higher Trump said it won't drive them higher but will force countries like China to "pay us a lot of money" and "give us a lot of power for other things," though didn't elaborate.

Heading into tonight's event, Biden and Trump are locked in a close contest. 538's presidential election forecast rates the race as a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump having about a 1 in 2 shot of winning the election. This falls in line with our national polling average, which has the two candidates just about tied at 41%, with Kennedy polling at 9%.

But as readers know, U.S. presidential elections aren't decided by the national popular vote. Instead, they're decided by the Electoral College, where the results in individual states determine who wins each state's electoral votes, with a majority of 270 out of 538 in total necessary to claim victory. Currently, the forecast shows an extremely tight race in each of the most pivotal states.

For instance, Biden's path to victory may rest primarily on winning the Frost Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that he carried in 2020. While the forecast shows him with small leads in each of those states, Biden's advantage is well inside the range of potential outcomes, meaning Trump could easily carry them once we get to November. Meanwhile, Trump holds a narrow edge in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, but similarly his leads are far from secure.

Still, with nearly four months to go until Election Day, there's a great deal of uncertainty around where public opinion will stand when voters cast their ballots. 538's forecast utilizes a combination of polling information and campaign fundamentals, such as the economic situation and each state's partisan leanings. Together, those indicators show a toss-up race that could go in either direction.

Now, tonight's debate could move the contest: Historically, the margin in presidential races has shifted by an average of about 2 points in the two weeks following the first general election debate in cycles dating back to 1976. In what could be bad news for Biden, that movement has more often than not gone against the incumbent president or party. Yet we're still sailing in uncharted waters. After all, this election involves both a sitting and former president, an unprecedented matchup in modern times. The debate is history-making, too: It's nearly three months earlier than any past general election face-off.

-538's Geoffrey Skelley