Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
DeSantis’s campaign shake-ups
DeSantis remains Trump’s closest challenger, but his support has been dropping over the past several months: He currently trails the former president by nearly 40 percentage points in our national polling average.
With that drop have come some shake-ups in the DeSantis campaign. The campaign has laid off around one-third of its 92-person staff, with the latest cuts coming in July, according to ABC News. Changes stretched all the way to the top: DeSantis replaced his campaign manager with his governor’s office chief of staff. On top of that, some of his top donors have voiced concerns, saying they want DeSantis to recruit more major donors and take a more moderate approach on social issues.
All of that has made this debate crucial for DeSantis, both in terms of trying to chip away at Trump’s lead and proving to his supporters that he actually has a shot. He’s recruited a veteran debate coach and is getting advice from a supportive super PAC, according to The New York Times. That advice? Rather than attack the front-runner, DeSantis should “take a sledgehammer” to Ramaswamy who, unlike DeSantis, is rising in the polls. DeSantis won’t just be trying to win the debate tonight: He’s also aiming to push back against the rolling tide of news that hints at a flailing campaign.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Why DeSantis, Ramaswamy will literally be center stage
DeSantis and Ramaswamy, both newcomers to the presidential debate stage, will appear front and center on Wednesday night.
That's because where candidates will stand was determined by how they are faring in the polls.
More seasoned politicians, such as Pence or Christie, have been placed closer to the outer rim because of their more middling numbers so far. Hutchinson and Burgum will stand on either end.
-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler
Which candidates are winning the money race?
Money isn’t the be-all-and-end-all of political campaigns — but it sure helps, especially during the early phases of a primary. And in the 2024 pocketbook primary, the leaders so far are Trump (who raised $17.7 million in April, May and June) and DeSantis (who raised $20.1 million). These figures are striking, but you also have to account for how much time each candidate has been in the race. For instance, DeSantis jumped in in late May, so he had much less time in which to raise that money than Trump. Here’s a chart of who raised the most in the second quarter on a prorated basis.
But there’s also important context that those topline fundraising numbers don’t tell you. For instance, Burgum’s and Ramaswamy’s totals aren’t as impressive as they look — most of their fundraising came from their own wallets rather than from grassroots donors. Burgum self-funded $10.1 million of his $11.8 million haul, and Ramaswamy self-funded $5.0 million of his $7.7 million total.
On the other end of the spectrum, Scott is in better financial shape than his $5.9 million raised would suggest. That’s because he has more than $21 million cash on hand, thanks to money he carried over from his high-rolling Senate campaigns.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
Who’s dishing out for advertisements?
One challenger to Trump has surged ahead — in ad buys, at least. Scott announced an $8 million ad buy this month. The bulk of that, $6.6 million, will go toward TV advertisements in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Washington Post. That’s on top of the $40 million ad buy planned by a super PAC supporting Scott that was announced last month.
Trump and DeSantis, the two front-runners, had dominated in early ad spending. But challengers like Scott have stepped up as they’ve tried to qualify for debates and raise name recognition in early voting states. Super PACs supporting Haley and Burgum have also increased spending recently. Stand for America Fund, Inc., which is aligned with Haley, spent $2.3 million on ads so far in August, while Best of America, which backs Burgum, has spent $2.1 million, according to reporting from NBC News.
Meanwhile, Trump-supporting PACs have spent millions on the former president’s legal fees as the number of indictments filed against him has risen to four. That will leave less money for spending on ads going forward, but Trump remains the top campaign fundraiser.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight takeaway: Haley delivers fireworks, but is it enough?
Nikki Haley has been in the race for longer than anyone else on the stage but hasn't had a breakout moment yet. She was clearly aiming to change that tonight, and she did have one of the most memorable back-and-forths of the night when she took Ramaswamy to task over his lack of foreign policy experience. She came out swinging early not just against Biden but against Republicans in Congress, and she was one of just a handful of contenders to make an electability argument against Trump by pointing out his low favorability ratings. But for a candidate who is polling at 3.4 percent nationwide, it's not obvious that was enough.
Burgum's presence was a victory in and of itself for the governor, given his injury today. But he got scant talking time, and his most interesting answer, when he came out definitively against a national abortion ban, isn't likely to earn him many new fans in the GOP.
But here's what I really think. The next debate is not for another month, but tomorrow, Donald Trump will surrender to the authorities in Atlanta. His mugshot will ricochet across the internet and land on the front page of every major newspaper in the country. At that point, will people be talking about tonight's debate? Or will they be back to talking about Trump? I'd put my money on the latter, and that's not good news for anyone on stage tonight.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections