Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.


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Sanders paints picture of country 'hijacked' by radical left

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, delivering the Republican response to the State of the Union, offered a bleak picture of Biden's presidency.

"In the radical left's America, Washington taxes you and lights your hard-earned money on fire but you get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shelves and our children are taught to hate one another on account of their race but not to love one another or our great country," she said. "Whether Joe Biden believes this madness or is simply too weak to resist it, his administration has been completely hijacked by the radical left."

Sanders called Biden "unfit to serve" as she criticized his handling of the southern border, crime, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and more.

"Every day we are told we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags and worship their false idols," she said of Democrats. "All while big government colludes with big tech to strip away the most American thing there is: your freedom of speech. That's not normal. It's crazy. And it's wrong."


The State of the Union response is a time for rising stars

The opposition response to the State of the Union has been around for more than half a century, but in modern times the opposition party has often used it to showcase a new, high-profile figure. It's no different this year, as Republicans were represented by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as a press secretary in the Trump White House.

Sanders just won her new office in November, making her the first woman governor in Arkansas's history. This puts her right at home with many first-term governors, senators and representatives who've given a response speech in recent years. Previous orators include Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia in 2006, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in 2013, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa in 2015 and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan in 2020.

And with the proliferation of response speeches in different languages and from various party factions, even more fresh faces are in the limelight this year. First-term GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona gave the Spanish-language response for his party, while first-term Democratic Rep. Delia Ramirez of Illinois offered the Working Families Party's response.

-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley


'Democrats have failed you,' Sanders says in GOP response

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivered the Republican response to President Biden's State of the Union, in which he called on Congress to "finish the job" on health care, the economy, policing and more.

"Being a mom to three young children taught me not to believe every story I hear. So, forgive me for not believing much of anything I heard tonight from President Biden. From out-of-control inflation and violent crime to the dangerous border crisis and threat from China, Biden and the Democrats have failed you," Sanders said.

She quickly drew on some key differences between her and Biden, saying they "don't have a lot in common."

"At 40, I'm the youngest governor in the country. At 80, he's the oldest president in American history," she said. "I'm the first woman to lead my state. He's the first man to surrender his presidency to a woke mob that can't even tell you what a woman is."


President's passing reference to spy balloon as he discusses China

While he didn't directly mention it, Biden made a passing reference to what the federal government said was a Chinese surveillance balloon that flew for days over the continental U.S. before being shot down by the military on Saturday.

"I'm committed to work with China where we can advance American interests and benefit the world," Biden said as he spoke briefly about foreign policy. "But make no mistake about it, as we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country and we did."

Biden argued that "winning the competition with China should unite all of us."


SOTU is a soft-launch for Biden 2024

Biden may still be some ways from formally declaring his intentions about a 2024 reelection campaign, but his message on Tuesday -- he wants to "finish the job" -- certainly hints at another bid.

Yet this comes in the face of polls that have shown an unusually high percentage of Americans don't want him to run again -- including Democrats. In a new ABC News/Washington Post survey, 58% of Democrats said they wanted the party to nominate someone other than Biden, a finding echoed by a recent AP/NORC survey, too. Now, it's not unheard of for the public to prefer that a president not run again. For instance, majorities told pollsters at different points in 1982 and 1983 that they didn't want Ronald Reagan, another older president, to run again. But in those polls, a majority of Republicans still wanted four more years of Reagan, in contrast to what Democrats are saying in polls about Biden.

However, none of this means Biden will be an underdog in the 2024 Democratic primary. Fact is, elected presidents rarely face serious opposition for renomination. Importantly, Biden has a solid approval rating among Democrats -- around 80% for better in most polls -- so while many Democrats express skepticism toward another Biden run, most also don't mind how he's governing the country. This complicates any would-be challenger justifying a campaign against Biden.

Moreover, the potential Democratic candidates polling best against Biden are in his administration -- Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg -- making them unlikely to run against him. Although we can't discount someone from the left taking on Biden, the leftward threat posed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders faded when he encouraged the party to coalesce around Biden ahead of Super Tuesday in 2020 -- before Biden was the clear leader of his party. Barring a major collapse in Biden's standing, then, a serious primary challenge appears unlikely.

-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley