The Note: Kavanaugh’s fate rests on vanishing middle
Of the 100 senators, easily 90 – perhaps upwards of 95 – know how they'll vote.
The TAKE with Rick Klein
This is a hyperpartisan moment. But the only votes in doubt are a handful in the middle – those for whom the partisanship of the moment is noise, or worse.
Of the 100 senators, easily 90 – perhaps upwards of 95 – know exactly how they will vote on Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court.
Partisan grooves have only deepened in advance of Thursday's hearing. President Donald Trump as well as top Senate Republicans and Democrats have been making their positions – and how strongly they feel about them – more clear, without hearing a public word from Christine Blasey Ford.
If this was just about confirming a nominee, the only audience that matters are a few retiring Republicans, a couple of red state Democrats, and a pair of GOP moderates. "The conversation is not rational on either side," one of those moderates, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, told The New York Times.
It highlights a paradox of this moment: Kavanaugh will or will not serve a lifetime appointment on the Supreme Court based on the judgment of a few people who occupy the center.
But the political conversation is being driven inside the parties' bases, where this showdown carries outsize weight as a galvanizing issue. Thursday's hearing may look like a search for answers, yet most of those directing the questioning know what they want to hear and how they want it heard.
The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks
Executives from some of the world's largest technology companies will testify (again) on Capitol Hill Wednesday, including representatives from Apple, AT&T, Google, Twitter and Amazon.
"Consumers deserve clear answers and standards on data privacy protection," chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., wrote announcing this week's hearing.
But it's not just data privacy on the list of potentially tough questions. Expect the executives to be grilled on how their companies are handling fake news, election security, influence from foreign state actors, as well as political bias in their algorithms and workplaces.
Conservative politicians and activists continue to cry foul and have ramped up accusations against the tech companies, arguing they demote right-wing voices.
The hearing comes on the heels of a meeting Attorney General Jeff Sessions held with state law enforcement officials Tuesday in California to discuss the size and power of tech giants and subsequent consumer protection issues.
A senior Democratic aide told ABC News one senator on the committee plans to ask Amazon specifically about its facial recognition tools.
The TIP with Lissette Rodriguez
The latest polls out of Florida's tight Senate race show Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson pulling ahead– a change from polls earlier this month showing a dead heat.
Nelson has a 7 point lead over his Republican opponent and current Gov. Rick Scott, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from September 20-24. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. An NBC/Marist poll, also out Tuesday, shows Nelson ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error.
One reason for Nelson's advantage could be his popularity with Hispanics, who make up almost one in five eligible voters in the state, according to the Pew Research Center.
While Scott led with Hispanic voters in an early September Quinnipiac poll, 59 percent to 39 percent, Nelson is now ahead with those voters, 61 percent to 39 percent. That's despite Scott's efforts to deliver bilingual speeches and distance himself from President Trump in Spanish-language television ads.
Nelson's lead now is comparable to what he had in exit polls from his 2012 Senate race, when he won the Latino vote 59 percent to 37 percent -- a key factor in his overall 13-point victory six years ago.
And although there are still 41 days until the midterm elections, the Quinnipiac poll shows 94 percent of Florida's likely voters already have their minds made up on the candidate they want – with health care the most important issue.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY
QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Didn't expect that reaction but that's OK." – President Donald Trump, ad-libbing about audible laughter during his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, after he said his administration has accomplished "almost more than any other administration in the history of our country."
THE PLAYLIST
ABC News' "Start Here" Podcast. Wednesday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Mary Bruce – she spent Tuesday chasing down senators to get their reaction to the announcement that a former prosecutor will be asking Christine Blasey Ford questions during Thursday's hearing. And, ABC News' Aaron Katersky tells us about the moment from President Trump's U.N. address that drew laughs from the audience. https://bit.ly/2Ohkpz8
NEED TO READ
Trump administration turns ire toward Iran, alienating allies at UN. One year after threatening to destroy North Korea and mocking Kim Jong Un as “Rocket Man,” President Donald Trump and his top officials have turned their ire on a new target at this year’s United Nations General Assembly: Iran. (Conor Finnegan) https://abcn.ws/2NFO6gD
Rachel Mitchell named as prosecutor set to question Brett Kavanaugh accuser Christine Blasey Ford. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley reversed course just hours after he said he would not reveal the name of the prosecutor hired by the GOP to question the woman accusing Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of assault. (Mark Osborne) https://abcn.ws/2xRGpsV
Avenatti claims to represent another Kavanaugh accuser. Avenatti, the attorney for adult-film star Stephanie Clifford, aka Stormy Daniels, on Tuesday, tweeted that he expected the woman, whom he has said he was representing, to make her name and accusations public on her own timetable. (James Hill) https://abcn.ws/2Iff2xJ
On Kavanaugh allegations, Murkowski sends message to GOP: 'Take them seriously.' When asked if she agrees with Leader McConnell that this is a "smear campaign," Murkowski declined to comment directly. Instead, in a carefully worded response, she said: "I think it is important that we have a process that is viewed as credible and respected." (Mary Bruce, Ali Rogin and Mariam Khan) https://abcn.ws/2QWWDcX
Kavanaugh allegations put GOP candidates in an untenable bind as midterms approach. After allegations of sexual assault against the nominee have surfaced, the political capital Republicans thought they could spend during Kavanaugh's confirmation fight has evaporated, and the process has become yet another headache for the GOP as the final month of the campaign approaches. (John Verhovek) https://abcn.ws/2DurA5x
Trump accuses Democrats of 'con game' in opposing Kavanaugh. "It's just a game for them but it's a very dangerous game for our country," Trump said of Democrats. (Jordyn Phelps, Mariam Khan, Mary Bruce, Ali Rogin and Trish Turner) https://abcn.ws/2xLoQLZ
US-China military relations sour days after Trump administration imposes sanctions. The status of U.S. and Chinese military relations appears to be deteriorating less than one week after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Beijing for its purchase of Russian weapons and equipment. (Elizabeth McLaughlin) https://abcn.ws/2Q6dyZo
Trump 'didn't expect' to get laughed at while speaking at the UN. Trump also praised his administration's progress with North Korea, thanking Kim Jong Un "for his courage and for the steps he has taken, though much work remains to be done." At last year's address, Trump famously mocked Kim as "Rocket Man" and threatened to destroy North Korea. (Meghan Keneally, Conor Finnegan and Jordyn Phelps) https://abcn.ws/2QVZSBp
'They were mostly all dirty': Hill investigators allege sexual harassment, cover-ups at TSA. The federal agency in charge of securing U.S. airline travel has been plagued by bad bosses, House Republican investigators allege in a new report, including one senior official who sent sexually explicit messages to a female subordinate and then threatened to push out another coworker if he reported him. (Anne Flaherty) https://abcn.ws/2DuvIlR
House Republicans push for Rosenstein testimony, subpoena for McCabe memos. A group of President Donald Trump's staunchest conservative allies in the House is pushing for Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appear on Capitol Hill and testify under oath. (Benjamin Siegel) https://abcn.ws/2OSOpB6
18 for '18: Midterm races that could reshape Washington and the country. Every House seat and a third of all senators are up for election. There are scores of new faces in the Democratic Party and a record number of open seats too, as many Republican lawmakers have called it quits. There's a lot to track, but these 18 races help paint a picture of the nation and the storylines and trends emerging from coast to coast. (ABC News) https://abcn.ws/2mSgRqi
FiveThirtyEight's editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes that the GOP faces huge risks in rushing to confirm Kavanaugh and in letting the process grind out for several more weeks, which means that encouraging Kavanaugh might be the "least-worst option." https://53eig.ht/2DvtBOM
While Democrats are taking Christine Blasey Ford and Deborag Ramirez's allegations against Kavanaugh, they're stopping far short of giving the same treatment to a third, undisclosed woman represented by celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti, POLITICO reports. https://politi.co/2Ohv930
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