The Note: 'Mayor Pete's' rise a reminder of how little we know about 2020

Almost everything we think we know about 2020 is almost certainly wrong.

By
Rick Klein
 and
MaryAlice Parks
April 5, 2019, 6:00 AM ET
7 min read

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Almost everything we think we know about 2020 is almost certainly wrong.

The unlikely rise of Pete Buttigieg is a reminder of how expectations can and will be upended. The 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Indiana, can't fairly be labeled "little-known" anymore after emerging as the biggest winner of the presidential race's first quarter.

His extended moment in the early spotlight -- complete with an appeal to "my generation of voters" on "Good Morning America" on Thursday -- may frustrate rivals looking for traction. But it should also show the possibility, or even probability, that many will have chances to break through.

As the field swelled again this week, we still don't know how many candidates will run or whether former Vice President Joe Biden, the current polling frontrunner, will even be in the race. After the last few days, we also don't know how he'll fare under the considerable scrutiny already being focused on him.

A race that's barely begun has already had more than its share of surprises. A top tier of candidates that involves "Mayor Pete" is not a scenario any Democrat would have predicted even a month ago.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

On the campaign trail and in the office, President Donald Trump has said that unlike so many presidents before him he couldn't release his tax returns because they're under audit.

As a wealthy, tough-knuckled, scrappy businessman, that answer had some intellectual consistency for voters. But now he's president, and has been for two years, and during that time there have been several questions about whether he's made money from being in office.

The House Democrats' letter to the IRS on Wednesday -- requesting six years of Trump's personal and business tax returns -- attempted to call the audit-line bluff by admitting that the IRS has a policy of auditing all sitting presidents' tax returns and asking to review the effectiveness and timeliness of that work.

The likely pending legal fight could go many ways, but politically it's easy to see how the president could have a much harder time pulling off in 2020 what he began pulling off in 2016.

The TIP with John Verhovek

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., has long been considered a rising Democratic star and a potential presidential contender, someone whose swing-state credentials and relationship-building skills within the party once garnered the praise of former President Barack Obama.

All those things remain true even after Bennet's disclosure on Wednesday that he was diagnosed with prostate cancer. He said it has not deterred him from considering a run for the White House.

Despite the worrying health news, he appears to be moving full-steam ahead with a three-day visit this weekend to New Hampshire. If he does get in the race, which he said he will do if he is diagnosed cancer-free, Bennet would also be competing against former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, the man he served as chief of staff during his time Denver's mayor.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Friday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Executive Producer Chris Vlasto, who discusses what both sides are actually arguing about when it comes to the release of the Mueller report. Then, we hear from Sofie Karasek, one of the women coming forward to accuse Joe Biden of inappropriate contact -- what does she want to see from the former vice president going forward? And, ABC News Senior National Correspondent Terry Moran tells us what the nomination of former presidential candidate Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve Board tells us about Trump's broader economic policy. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

ABC News' "Powerhouse Politics" podcast. On Friday's episode, Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl and Political Director Rick Klein speak with sportswriter Rick Reilly, the author of a new book on President Donald Trump, "Commander in Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump." https://apple.co/21V9721

FiveThirtyEight's Politics podcast. In this episode, political science professors Julia Azari and Seth Masket discuss the origin of the Electoral College, its effect on our elections and the possible changes that could be made to it. https://53eig.ht/2G1tZ6M

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

  • The president is scheduled to leave Washington at 9:50 a.m. for California, arriving at a U.S. Border Patrol station in Calexico around 12:10 p.m., followed by a 45-minute roundtable on immigration and border security, a trip to the border, a return to the airport, a flight north to Santa Monica, a late-afternoon roundtable with supporters, a fundraising dinner and, finally, a flight to Las Vegas.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Construction and Maintenance Conference at 11:15 a.m. Friday in Washington.
  • On his second trip to Iowa, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke, D-Texas, campaigns in Storm Lake, Fort Dodge, Marshalltown and Grinnell on Friday. The presidential candidate closes out his four-day swing with six house parties in Des Moines and Polk City on Saturday and a rally at the University of Iowa on Sunday.
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., returns to Iowa this weekend for rallies and town halls in Davenport, Muscatine, Burlington, Fairfield, Oskaloosa and Malcom.
  • Four presidential candidates are heading to New Hampshire this weekend: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., makes stops in Dover, Laconia and Concord over two days; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg hosts meet-and-greets with voters in Manchester and Concord on Friday and Saturday; Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., travels to Amherst, Bedford, Londonderry, and Dover beginning on Saturday; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang heads to Concord for a town hall on Sunday. Also on Sunday, Buttigieg headlines the 2019 LGBTQ Victory Fund National Champagne Brunch at noon in Washington.
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper makes a three-day swing through the south, with a stop in Montgomery, Alabama, on Friday before heading to Okatie and Charleston, South Carolina, on Saturday and Sunday.
  • In Nevada, presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., returns on Saturday for a campaign event in Reno. Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., who is also weighing a 2020 bid, will spend two days in the state with events in Las Vegas and Henderson.
  • Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro heads to Los Angeles to hold his first rally in California.
  • Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., who is still considering running for president, spends two days in New Hampshire with stops in Nashua, Concord and Dover.
  • Sunday on "This Week": The Powerhouse Roundtable debates the week in politics, with ABC News' Cokie Roberts, ABC News Political Analyst Matthew Dowd, Romney-Ryan 2012 Campaign Policy Director and Hoover Institution Fellow Lanhee Chen and Democracy for America CEO Yvette Simpson.

    • Download the ABC News app and select "The Note" as an item of interest to receive the day's sharpest political analysis. Please check back Monday for the latest.