ESPN's NFL MVP poll: Ryan, Rodgers on the rise

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DAN GRAZIANO via <a href="http://espn.go.com/" title="ESPN" class="espn_sc_byline">ESPN </a>
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December 28, 2016, 1:51 PM ET
5 min read

— -- We have one more week of games to add to the data pool before it's time to declare a 2016 NFL MVP. Although, does it really matter? The current leader in our poll is a guy who missed the first four games of the season.

What difference is one more going to make?

Methodology: Each of our 13 panelists nominated their top five candidates.?First-place votes are worth five points, second-place votes worth four, third-place?votes worth three, fourth-place votes worth two and fifth-place votes worth one.

Previous polls: Week 16 |? Week 15 |? Week 14 | Week 13

1. Tom Brady, QB | New England Patriots

Regular-season passing:?266-for-399 (66.7 percent); 3,278 yards; 25 TDs; 2 INTs; 81.9 Total QBR

Case for Brady:?Since the second week of October, no one has played better at the most important position. In that time, Brady's team is 10-1, and he has shown no drop-off, in spite of the loss of top playmaker Rob Gronkowski to injury.

Case against Brady:?The 2016 NFL season began in the second week of September --?not October. For one-quarter of the season, Brady was of no value whatsoever to the Patriots, who managed a .750 win percentage in that time in spite of his absence. In a year in which so many other worthy candidates have played the entire season, it's lunacy to hand this award to someone who missed four games. This has to stop. It's almost time for people to actually vote.

2. Matt Ryan,?QB?| Atlanta Falcons

Case for Ryan:?Take Brady's numbers, project them over 15 games instead of the 11 he has played, and he would have the same number of touchdowns and 143 fewer yards than Ryan has in real life. Ryan has been the league's top quarterback since the season began, and he has helped carry a team whose defense has struggled to find consistent footing.

Case against Ryan:?Ryan has the same number of wins as Brady, despite playing four more games, and his running game is stronger, so I guess you can make the case that his accomplishment is somehow inferior. But it really isn't, and he should rank ahead of Brady on this list.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB | Green Bay Packers

? Regular-season passing:?374-for-571 (65.5); 4,128 yards; 36 TDs; 7 INTs; 77.5 Total QBR

Case for Rodgers:?Who has done more to lift his team at the most critical time of the year? Through 10 games, the Packers were 4-6 and in major trouble. Rodgers talked about running the table, and they've since won five in a row and have a game Sunday night that can make them division champions. Rodgers has 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his past six games.

Case against Rodgers:?He was erratic in the first half of the season, playing poorly in losses to Minnesota, Dallas, Indianapolis and Tennessee. He deserves credit for hauling the Packers out of their midseason hole, but he had some complicity in its existence.

4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB | Dallas Cowboys

? Regular-season rushing:?322 carries; 1,631 yards; 15 TDs
Regular-season receiving:?32 receptions; 363 yards; 1 TD

Case for Elliott:?This award should probably go to the player most closely identified with and responsible for his team's success. The Cowboys' lifeblood is the running game. Elliott leads the league in rushing yards by 393. He is his team's engine.

Case against Elliott:?Quarterback is justifiably viewed as the more valuable position, which means it's tough for non-quarterbacks to win this award. Some want to downgrade Elliott as part of his team's larger success -- the quality of his offensive line and the performance of fellow rookie MVP candidate Dak Prescott at quarterback.

5. Derek Carr,?QB | Oakland Raiders

? Regular-season passing:?356-for-559 (63.7 percent); 3,933 yards; 28 TDs; 6 INTs; 61.9 Total QBR

Case for Carr: Oakland's?12-3 record and the fact that the defense hasn't played as well as it had hoped to are the cases for Carr, whose fourth-quarter performances have pulled the Raiders out of the fire more than once. We'll get a chance to see just how valuable Carr was, as the Raiders have to play without him the rest of the way following his season-ending leg injury.

Case against Carr:?His numbers don't stack up with those of the other quarterbacks on this list, and he won't get another chance to burnish them before the end of the season. But if you can give this award to a guy who missed four games, surely you can give it to a guy who missed one.