Consumer Confidence Up, but Still Lags

Sept. 6, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence has rebounded this week, perhaps buoyed by easing gasoline prices.

Amid income stagnation and soft housing and jobs markets, however, it's still below average heading into the post-Labor Day congressional election season.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index advanced four points this week to -15 on its scale of +100 to -100, wiping away most of last week's five-point drop.

The gyrations could stem from competing economic data -- some negative reports countered by lower gasoline prices, down 12 cents this week and 31 cents in the last month to an average $2.73 per gallon in the latest federal survey.

At -15 the index is below its long-term average, -9.

It's not far from its Labor Day level after the 2002 midterm election (-13) but much worse than in 1998 (+29).

It's better than at this stage in 1994, when Republicans won control of both houses of Congress.

INDEX -- The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the national economy, the buying climate, and their personal finances. Thirty-five percent say the national economy is in good shape, compared with a long-term average of 40 percent. Thirty-three percent call it a good time to buy things; the average since December 1985 is 38 percent. And 59 percent rate their own finances positively, nearer its average, 57 percent.

TREND -- The CCI bottomed out this year at -19 in May and again last week, and peaked at -7 in March and April. It held between -9 and -11 in July before sliding last month.

The index's all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -66 among those with the lowest incomes; -6 among college graduates while -43 among those who haven't finished high school; -10 among whites but -46 among blacks; and -2 among men while -26 among women.

The index continues to be best in the West, at +7, compared with -11 in the South, -26 in the Northeast, and -33 in the Midwest. A strong political element continues as well, with Republicans far more sanguine about the economy (a CCI of +28), independents far less so (-23), and Democrats more disgruntled still (-34).

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-five percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.