Economic Pessimists Outnumber Optimists

Sept. 19, 2006 — -- Half of Americans think the economy's getting worse while only 14 percent think it's improving, a sharply negative assessment that's held roughly steady since midwinter.

Assessments of current economic conditions, meanwhile, are stable and below their long-term average. The latest ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -15 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared to its average -9 in weekly surveys since late 1985. It's been between -13 and -15 since mid-August, apart from a dip to -19 Aug. 27.

The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the current national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances. This week 37 percent say the national economy is in good shape and 34 percent call it a good time to buy things. As usual more, 57 percent, rate their own finances positively, matching its long-term average.

DIRECTION -- Separately each month the ABC/Post poll measures expectations -- whether people think the economy is getting better, worse or holding steady. Since February, about half have said it's getting worse -- 50 percent in this poll, ranging from 47 to 56 percent since Feb. 12. Far fewer say it's improving -- 14 percent now, and a range since midwinter of 14 to 19 percent.

As with the overall index, there's a vast partisan gap on this question, with independents siding somewhat more with Democrats. Seventy percent of Democrats say the economy's getting worse, as do 50 percent of independents; only three percent and 12 percent in these groups, respectively, think it's improving. Among Republicans, by contrast, just 26 percent think the economy's getting worse, and 29 percent think it's improving.

TREND -- The index has ranged this year from a low of -19 in May and again in late August to a high of -7 in March and April. Its all-time high was +38 in January 2000; its record low, -50 in February 1992.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +25 among higher-income Americans while -59 among those with the lowest incomes, -2 among college graduates while -47 among those who haven't finished high school, -11 among whites but -41 among blacks and -6 among men while -23 among women.

The index continues to be best in the West, at -2, compared with -7 in the South, and -28 in the Northeast and Midwest alike.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY -- Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The highest percentage of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The lowest was 7 percent in late 1991 and early 1992.