Confidence Levels After Three-Month Advance

Dec. 5, 2006 — -- Consumer confidence held essentially steady this week, leveling after a sharp three-month increase that lifted it to its highest level in 4½ years.

The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -1 on its scale of +100 to -100; it's remained basically flat the last three weeks, between +1 and -1, after soaring from -19 on Aug. 27.

While the pause may cause some concern, the index has risen smartly: Positive ratings of the buying climate are up 11 points in the last three months; the national economy, also up 11 points; and personal finances, up 5 points -- just in time for the holiday shopping season.

TREND -- The index has been much stronger -- a high of +38 in January 2000 -- as well as much weaker, a low of -50 in February 1992. But it's above its long-term average, -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, and 18 points above its low for this year, reached in May and again in August amid soaring gasoline prices. It's averaged -10 so far this year.

GROUPS -- As usual, the index is higher in better-off groups. It's +46 among higher-income Americans while -28 among those with the lowest incomes, +14 among college graduates while -37 among people who haven't finished high school, +7 among whites while -54 among blacks and +5 among men while -6 among women.

The index this week is strongest, +23, in the West, and weakest, -18, in the Midwest. It's -4 and -2 in the Northeast and South, respectively.