What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win

Not long before polls began closing on Election Day, Stephen Miller, a longtime adviser whom President-elect Donald Trump has since tapped as his deputy chief of policy, shared a post on X mentioning an "after-work surge of men" voting: "Get every man you know to the polls," Miller added. This was an unveiled acknowledgement by the Trump team of the advantage they had in support from men, and the disadvantage they had among women.

In a widely shared New York Times/Siena College battleground poll from August, men from every age cohort were more likely to support Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris, while women in every age cohort were more likely to support Harris than Trump. In that poll, the biggest gap was among the youngest cohort — 53 percent of men ages 18-29 planned to support Trump, compared to just 29 percent of women, a gender gap of 24 percentage points. This gender gap was often in the news leading up to Election Day, especially in light of the reported boost in enthusiasm for Harris among women, and controversial pro-Harris ads suggesting that women married to pro-Trump men vote for Harris and hide their votes from their husbands.

In this context, Miller's last-minute appeal to men seemed to suggest a little desperation. Of course, it may have been unneeded: Trump improved on his 2020 numbers not only among men in 2024, but among many other groups too. And with Trump gaining across most demographic groups, the gender gap this year was large, but not notably larger than it had been in 2020 or 2016. According to exit polls, 55 percent of men voted for Trump in 2024, compared to 45 percent of women, for a 10-point gender gap — 1 point less than the 11-point gap in support for Trump in both 2020 and 2016.*

Compared to other exit polling results that point to how Trump's victory may have boiled down to a referendum on President Joe Biden and the economy, this relatively static gender gap may not point to gender as a major factor in the election. But differences in the gender gap across groups of voters — such as growing gaps among Black and Latino voters — can tell us more about the country's changing partisan landscape. And there's a reason gender has also been widely discussed in the aftermath of Election Day: The role that gender played in each party's 2024 presidential campaigns highlights a potential shift in the parties' approaches to male and female voters, and how voters think about gender and politics.

A steady but evolving gender gap

Trump's 11-point gap in support between men and women in 2016 and 2020 was a record, but men have been consistently more likely than women to back Republicans since 1980. From then until 2016, the gender gap in support for Republicans ranged from 0 points (in 1992) to 10 points (in 2000), according to exit polls. (The phenomenon of men consistently showing stronger support for the more ideologically conservative party than women is not limited to the U.S., either.)

But the gender gap isn't uniform across all groups. For example, white men and women voted more similarly to each other in 2024 than Black or Latino men and women. And gender gaps also varied by age cohort this election, as many predicted they would.

To gain a clearer picture of the gender gap this year, we analyzed support for Trump among men and women at the intersection of race, education, age and geographic density — as well as how voting patterns in these groups shifted from 2020. For example, in 2020 Trump won 61 percent of white men and 55 percent of white women, for a 6-point gender gap among white voters. That gap was just 1 point bigger this year according to exit polls — 60 percent to 53 percent, for a 7-point gender gap among white voters. But the gender gap among nonwhite voters increased by significantly more.

Among Black voters, even as the vast majority of both men and women voted Democratic in both elections, Trump gained 2 points of support among men and lost 2 among women, moving the gender gap from 10 points in 2020 to 14 points in 2024. The gap is even more striking among Latino voters, one of the groups among whom Trump gained the most support overall compared to 2020. Four years ago, 36 percent of Latino men and 30 percent of Latino women supported Trump, a gender gap of just 6 points. That gap nearly tripled in 2024, as Trump's support among Latino men went up by almost 20 percentage points: He won 55 percent of Latino men and 38 percent of Latino women, for a gender gap of 17 points.

The education gap has also been a prominent focus of the Trump era, as college-educated voters increasingly vote Democratic and those without four-year degrees trend toward Republicans. The gender gap among college-educated voters grew from 2020 to 2024, though the reasons behind this movement seem to vary by race. White, college-educated voters are one of the few demographic groups where exit polls suggest Harris gained slightly on Biden's numbers from 2020. That was particularly true among women in this group, with 41 percent supporting Trump in 2024, down from 45 percent who supported him in 2020. Support for Trump among white college-educated men dropped by just 1 point, resulting in a 9-point gender gap this year. Meanwhile, support for Trump among college-educated women of color also dropped by 1 point, but it increased by 11 points among their male counterparts, for a huge gender gap of 16 points.

And the much-anticipated gender gap among Gen Z did emerge according to the exits, though it wasn't necessarily the chasm some polls predicted, as younger men and women both shifted right compared to their counterparts in 2020. This year, 49 percent of men and 37 percent of women aged 18 to 29 supported Trump, for a 12-point gender gap, 3 points larger than in 2020. The gap among men and women aged 30 to 39 was also 12 points, while it actually shrank among voters over 50. Most notably there, Trump gained 7 points in support among women aged 50 to 64 — from 44 percent in 2020 to 51 percent in 2024 — shrinking the gender gap in that age group from 15 points to 10 points.

The only other demographic cohort we examined where the gender gap shrunk by more than 1 point was among rural voters, and was also driven by higher support for Trump among women: He gained 11 points of support among rural women compared to 2020, which helped shrink the rural gender gap from 13 to 6 points.

This continued a theme in 2024 of smaller gender gaps in traditionally Republican-leaning demographic groups, like rural and white voters — suggesting that Trump consolidated support among women in these groups — and larger gender gaps among traditionally Democratic-leaning cohorts, like young and nonwhite voters — driven in part by Trump's gains among men in groups where he had the most room to grow.

Why Trump's appeals to men may have worked

Whether Trump's sizable improvements with younger men and men of color were explicitly due to the campaign's strategy to directly appeal to men is difficult to pinpoint, but that strategy was certainly on full display. Unlike in 2020, when Trump spent some time trying to appeal to women (particularly in the suburbs), much of his campaign's message in 2024 was notably targeted toward younger men, especially those who may rely on nontraditional media like podcasts or social media influencers for their news.

The GOP's convention, which happened before Democrats officially nominated Harris, leaned into Trump's "tough guy" persona and featured pro wrestler Hulk Hogan and Ultimate Fighting Championship president Dana White. Once Harris did become the Democratic standard-bearer, Trump's criticisms of her were tinged with unapologetic misogyny — and racist misogynoir — that is common in online, male-dominated spaces, like online video gaming. Later in the race, as Trump's campaign tried to capitalize on enthusiasm among young men, he appeared on podcasts with audiences that skew male and right-leaning, like the Nelk Boys Full Send Podcast, This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von, and The Joe Rogan Experience (the latter of which the Harris campaign skipped, to much hand-wringing among liberals who saw it as a missed opportunity).

Trump's ticket this year embodied sympathy for male victimhood, much like in 2016 — and it's not surprising that approach may have been even more salient this year, as many men express concern about their perceived social and economic decline. Trump brought a paternalistic tone to the campaign trail, saying he would be a "protector" of women, "whether the women like it or not." And his vice presidential nominee, Sen. JD Vance, has a record of comments suggesting that women's primary responsibility is to be wives, mothers and caregivers — a message that coincided with a resurgence in visibility on social media for so-called "tradwives" — women who typically advocate for embracing traditional homemaking and gender roles, including wives' submission to their husbands. It's a message that meshes with some of the chauvinist ideas perpetuated within the "manosphere" that Trump made the rounds with over the past year, and one that may be especially resonant for younger men seeking agency or purpose as they come of age.

Social media itself plays a large role in creating partisan "echo chambers" along gender divides. A recent analysis by The Washington Post of 800 TikTok users found male users were significantly more likely than female users to see content about Trump, immigration, inflation and foreign conflicts. Female users were similarly more likely to see content about Harris, feminism, sexism, health care and reproductive rights. These differences are particularly important for understanding the gender gap among younger men and women, who are more likely than older adults to use TikTok and other social media, including as a news source.

Over the last decade, conversations about sexual harassment and feminism were furthered by the #MeToo movement in ways that seemed to amplify partisan polarization around gender roles, such as a growing belief among Republicans that women are "seeking special favors" by demanding equality. And a range of recent polls help illustrate that many young men increasingly feel alienated or left behind by feminist narratives, including being unduly under fire and cast as villains, leading them to seek out narratives and role models exemplifying male empowerment. According to a 2023 poll by the Survey Center on American Life, 45 percent of men from ages 18 to 29 agreed with the statement that there is some or a lot of discrimination against men in American society, an increase of 13 points from men of the same age group in 2019, and 4 points higher than men ages 30 and older.

In other surveys, young men were more likely than older men, or more likely than young men in previous years, to express negative views about feminism and gender equality. For example, in a recent poll by the Survey Center on American Life, 19 percent of young men aged 18 to 29 agreed with the statement "the U.S. has gone too far promoting gender equality," up from just 8 percent in 2017. Another recent poll of men under 45 by Equimundo found that young men ages 18 to 23 were the least likely age group to agree that feminism had made the U.S. a better place: 47 percent agreed, compared to 53 percent of men ages 24 to 30 and 56 percent of men ages 31 to 45 — a small difference, but one signaling a notable generational shift. Perhaps driving part of this shift, the same poll found that more than a third of these younger men worried about being accused of abuse after a sexual encounter.

For their part, the Democratic group White Dudes for Harris also targeted men tired of hearing that "we're the problem," while pinning the blame for that on Trump and MAGA Republicans. Other organizations, like the Lincoln Project, reached out to men with messages that emphasized men's roles as fathers and protectors for daughters, or role models for sons. These messages, along with other pro-Harris ads aimed at men, reinforced some traditional gender norms, but emphasized men's responsibility to support the women in their lives as much as their own empowerment. (Of course, the Harris campaign also made its fair share of direct appeals to women, with its own big-name celebrity outreach and calls for women to protect reproductive rights by voting for Harris.)

Turning to the racial gender gap, whether Trump's appeals to disaffected men especially resonated with men of color isn't easy to directly measure, but as 538 contributor Dan Hopkins wrote for the site, young Black voters' allegiance to the Democratic Party could be waning due to a number of factors, including a declining sense of racial "linked fate," or the belief that an individual's personal well-being and opportunities are closely tied to the experiences and outcomes of their racial group as a whole. Given the Trump campaign's focus on men and masculinity, it's possible that gender "linked fate" took precedence over racial identity in influencing young Black men's votes.

Similarly, young Latino men in particular may have found certain aspects of Trump and his socially conservative message appealing, as 538 contributor Alexandra Samuels summarized. Many Latinos already identify as conservative, or have been turned off by Democratic approaches to "identity politics." As a whole, working-class young Latino (and Black) men this year felt that the economy was in poor shape, and many saw Trump as the salve, while viewing his machismo as the sign of a strong leader able to right the ship.

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The heightened salience of gender this year has been readily evident in the immediate aftermath of the election, as many perceived that the parties' messages pitted men against women: Among some young conservative men, the phrase "your body, my choice," originated by 26-year-old far-right commentator Nick Fuentes, has taken hold as a post-election victory cry. And on the other side of the gender divide, some young women have embraced the 4B movement, which originated in South Korea and boils down to swearing off relationships with men in response to gender inequality and violence against women.

All told, the Trump era has produced steady 10-point gender gaps, suggesting that his candidacy, cycle after cycle, surfaces preexisting gender fault lines in unique ways. But while this year's gender gap in voting choice remained fairly steady compared to recent presidential elections, the role that gender played in the campaigns highlighted a deeper, intensifying gender divide that influenced both parties' strategies and voting bases, and may shape American politics for years to come.

Footnote

*Exit polling in this analysis was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC). Full methodology for the exit poll can be found here.