Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries

As they have for several decades now, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans are in their party's primaries. And what happens in the primaries doesn't stay in the primaries. These lopsided primary results for women will likely contribute to a growing disparity between the parties' female representation in Congress and governors' mansions: Democratic women currently make up 41 percent and Republican women make up just 15 percent of their respective parties' members of Congress, and eight of the 12 female governors currently serving are Democrats. After the November elections, these gaps could widen.

While Republican groups in recent cycles have made efforts to catch up to Democrats by recruiting and supporting their own female candidates, those efforts appear to be flagging. After record numbers of GOP women ran in 2020 and even more in 2022 (though their numbers were still well behind Democrats), 2024 saw a decline in the number of Republican women running, and the share of women winning, in primaries.

Throughout the primary season, 538 collected a trove of demographic and political information (such as gender, endorsements from former President Donald Trump, progressive group endorsements and endorsements from pro-Israel groups) for every major-party candidate running for Senate, House or governor in the 2024 election cycle. This update takes a look at where women have run, and where women have won, in these primaries.* Our analysis of this data shows that the overall share of women running is down, likely due to both fewer GOP women running this cycle and less institutional support, which is a sharp departure from 2020 and 2022, when the GOP made some gains in this respect. On the whole, Democratic women's share of their party nominees is up from 2022, and many of these candidates are in a good position to win in November.

How many women are running and winning?

As we have for past primaries, we identified female primary candidates by using lists from the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP) at Rutgers University, which has been reliably collecting data on women running for office for decades.

Democrats have been electing more women to Congress than Republicans since the 1990s, due in large part to a concerted strategy to recruit and support female candidates. And because a culture of electing women paves the way for electing more women, Democratic women have created a positive feedback loop. For example, studies find a positive relationship between the share of women in state legislatures and the share of women elected to Congress from those same areas.

According to CAWP, in 2022 the number of Democratic women who ran in congressional primaries was 1.2 times greater than the number of Republican women who ran (354 Democratic women and 299 Republican women). This cycle, the number of Democratic women running in primaries is 1.8 times greater than the number of Republican women running (330 Democratic women and 186 Republican women).

Of course, raw numbers don't tell the full story, because according to CAWP, fewer men filed to run for Congress this cycle, too — but a look at the share of total candidates who were women tells a similar story. Overall, we found that 26 percent of candidates who ran in primaries for Senate, House or governor (we include candidates for governors races in most calculations below) in this cycle were women, similar to 2022, when 27 percent of candidates were women. But women are a larger share of Democratic candidates than Republican candidates: 37 percent of all Democratic candidates were women (compared to 35 percent in 2022), while just 17 percent of all Republican candidates were women (compared to 21 percent in 2022).

That discrepancy this cycle is even larger when it comes to outcomes, or the share of women winning their primaries to become their party's general election nominees: Among certified primary winners, women make up nearly half (46 percent) of Democratic nominees but just 16 percent of Republican nominees. That represents a 3-percentage-point increase among Democrats over 2022 — women made up 43 percent of their nominees last cycle — and a 4-point decrease among Republicans — women made up 20 percent of their 2022 nominees.

Zeroing in on congressional races, we can compare this year's data to CAWP's data on female primary winners in House and Senate races from 2018 through 2022. By this metric, Democratic women in 2024 matched or outran their previous numbers, with women making up 46 percent of Democratic House nominees and 46 percent of Senate nominees. The share of female Republican primary winners, on the other hand, dropped for a second consecutive cycle, with women making up just 16 percent of their party's House nominees and 18 percent of Senate nominees.

Democratic women also overperformed in primaries by 9 points, meaning they make up a larger share of Democratic primary winners than they did Democratic primary candidates. Meanwhile, the percentage of Republican women who won their primaries is about the same as the share of women in the overall Republican candidate pool (17 percent compared to 16 percent, respectively).

While nominating women is one thing, setting them up to win in November is another, and both parties have some history of setting up female nominees to fail, as "sacrificial lambs" — or candidates running for a seat their party is almost certain to lose in November. For decades, women were often recruited for those types of races. However, a lot has changed in the last decade or so, as voters (and party leaders) increasingly perceive women to be viable political contenders, and therefore recruit them to run in winnable districts, especially in the Democratic Party.

To see where Democrats and Republicans are nominating women, we also examined where women are winning primary victories, based on race ratings from the Cook Political Report. Here again, we found notable differences between the two parties, as Democratic women are being nominated in large numbers in all types of races, while Republican women seem to be particularly boxed out of races in the reddest territory — or in other words, the races where winning a primary is tantamount to winning election. These "safe" seats (for both parties) also happen to be the most abundant, so exclusion from these races is why Republican women's overall share of their party's nominees are so low.

Among Democrats, women (who make up 46 percent of their party's nominees in this cycle) are best represented in races rated as lean or likely Republican, making up 55 percent of nominees. But while these nominees may face an uphill battle, they're not "sacrificial lambs" either. For example, Ashley Ehasz and Janelle Stelson were nominated in Pennsylvania's 1st and 10th Districts and, as my colleagues Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers wrote, both those districts are seen as top pickup targets for Democrats this year. Stelson will face Rep. Scott Perry, who is seen as vulnerable in the purple district due to his hard-right tendencies, while Ehasz will challenge moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, whose district has been shifting left since he last beat Ehasz by 10 points in 2022 — Biden won the district in 2020, and Democrats swept all five seats up for grabs in a recent local school board election.

Democratic women are also well-represented in the races rated as most competitive — they make up 44 percent of Democrats' nominees in toss-up races, meaning many will once again run in battleground races that will help determine the balance of the House and Senate. For instance, Rep. Elissa Slotkin got her party's nod in the Michigan open Senate race; Laura Gillen in New York's 4th District will face incumbent Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, who was vulnerable even before news broke earlier this week that he allegedly hired his mistress to work in his Congressional office; and Kristen McDonald Rivet will face Trump-backed Republican Paul Junge in Michigan's 8th District, an open race seen as a top GOP pickup opportunity.

And in solid Democratic races, 45 percent of Democrat's nominees are women, and many are non-incumbents likely to expand the ranks of Democratic women in office, such as Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delware's Senate race. The same is true of Maryland Senate nominee Angela Alsobrooks, one of the 42 percent of Democratic nominees in likely and lean Democratic seats who are women.

Among Republicans, women (who make up 17 percent of the party's total nominees this cycle) are best represented in likely and lean Republican seats — they make up 35 percent of these nominees. However, all seven of these women are incumbents, such as Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel in Southern California, and therefore will not add to the ranks of GOP women if they win reelection.

Like Democratic women, Republican women are also relatively well-represented in races that are likely or lean for the other party (they are 19 percent of these nominees), where they have an outside shot at winning — like Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake. But glaringly, Republican women are most underrepresented in solid Republican races, where they make up just 12 percent of nominees. It is these races where the GOP stood to gain the most ground electing women. Once again, almost all of the women on this list are incumbents — all but two: Julie Fedorchak in North Dakota and Sheri Biggs in South Carolina, who are shoo-ins for two open seats currently held by men.

But while they may be missing out on safe-seat opportunities, Republican women were nominated in a number of competitive districts, signaling the party's confidence in their strength as candidates. They make up 19 percent of GOP nominees in toss-up races, including Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire's open Senate race and several challengers — like Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina's 1st District and Yvette Herrell in New Mexico's 2nd — looking to topple vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

GOP women's groups were less active in 2024 primaries

Financial support and endorsements are crucial for women in the primaries, and historically Republicans have trailed Democrats in this regard. Support for female candidates has become baked into the DNA of the Democratic Party's financial and political networks, and the best-known, and best-funded, of groups that recruit and support women in politics is the Democratic-aligned EMILYs List. Although some Republicans have tried to build similar networks with groups like Elevate PAC (or E-PAC) and VIEW PAC, they have struggled to match the scale of EMILYs List, and they lack the same level of infrastructure, financial resources and widespread influence within the party.

"Democratic women can count on having the support they need to run well and will be more likely to take the step to run because of that support," said Melody Crowder-Meyer, a political scientist at Davidson College, who has studied how differences in the parties' donor networks contribute to these gaps. Crowder-Meyer explained that this same support isn't found in the GOP: "Donor groups ostensibly organized around promoting Republican women's representation raise and spend dramatically less and often even use their funds to back male Republican candidates who are opposing women Democrats."

And then there's the parties' cultural divide. "The GOP party culture works against [more formal] organizing by eschewing identity-based claims for resources, support or influence," said Erin Cassese, a political scientist and associate director for the Center for Political Communication at the University of Delaware. This reality is reflected in recent comments made by Rep. Elise Stefanik, who founded E-PAC after the 2018 cycle to elect more Republican women to Congress. This year in Washington's 3rd District, Stefanik joined Trump in backing 2022 nominee Joe Kent (who lost that race), while GOP women's groups VIEW PAC, Maggie's List, and Winning for Women all backed Leslie Lewallen, a former King County prosecutor. "I don't endorse women just because they're women," Stefanik told NBC when asked why she backed Kent. Still, Stefanik also highlighted that Republican women have been crucial in flipping battleground districts in recent cycles.

To get a sense of the activity — and success rates — of groups formed to elect more women to office, we've tracked every candidate endorsed by EMILYs List and Republican women's groups (E-PAC, Maggie's List, Winning for Women, VIEW PAC) in incumbent-less primaries (not including runoff endorsements) in the last several election cycles, and how often those endorsed candidates won. As was true in the last two cycles, endorsements from women's groups tend to be a good sign for a primary candidate in either party: Women endorsed by at least one women's group in open primaries this year had a win rate of 67 percent, compared to women without an endorsement from a women's group, who had a win rate of 37 percent. That said, having the support of EMILYs List as a Democrat this year was a much more reliable predictor of success than an endorsement from any GOP women's group.

Looking at these open primary races, where endorsements are most crucial, EMILYs List is leading the way in both success rate and number of endorsees, as Republican groups were quieter with their endorsements in non-incumbent primaries this year compared to the 2020 election cycle.

In 2024 primaries that we tracked, EMILYs List endorsed 31 candidates in open-seat contests – 25 of whom won their races, for a win rate of 81 percent. This includes Senate candidates Angela Alsobrooks in Maryland, for whom EMILYs List launched a $2 million ad buy to help her defeat billionaire Rep. David Trone, and Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, who defeated actor Hill Harper in her primary. The share of EMILYs List endorsees who won their primaries this cycle is slightly lower but comparable to how their endorsees performed in the last two cycles, as is the number of endorsements the group made.

Of the Republican groups, VIEW PAC endorsed the most this cycle — a total of 17 candidates, eight of whom won their primaries, for a win rate of 47 percent. Winning for Women went three for eight (a 38 percent win rate), while Maggie's List went three for six (a 50 percent win rate). Meanwhile, E-PAC got a slow start on endorsements this cycle, and never caught up, publicly endorsing just three women in open races before their primaries, two of whom won. (E-PAC did endorse other women who ran in open primaries after they had already won those primaries.) All of these groups had lower win rates than last cycle, though small sample sizes this year make it an imperfect comparison — all of the GOP women's groups endorsed between 15 and 31 candidates last cycle.

This performance by GOP women's groups — endorsing fewer candidates and winning less — was in some cases complicated by Trump, who has become an increasingly active (and coveted) endorser during each primary cycle since 2018, and competing endorsements and support from other prominent party leaders.

A few times in 2024, Trump and the NRCC endorsed against potentially strong female candidates, including some who would have been shoo-ins in a general election. In North Carolina's 13th District, a safe red seat, Kelly Daughtry received the most votes in the primary and qualified for the runoff, but she subsequently dropped out after Trump endorsed her runoff rival, Brad Knott. In Indiana — one of 18 states that has never had a female governor — Republicans' 2024 gubernatorial primary pitted sitting Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch against sitting Indiana Sen. Mike Braun, but Trump and party leaders lined up against Braun. And in Kansas's 3rd District, Karen Crnkovich had an endorsement from VIEW PAC, but the NRCC endorsed her opponent, Prasanth Reddy, who won in a competitive race.

While these represent just a few cases, these examples can be meaningful and contribute to a negative feedback loop for Republican women. As Crowder-Meyer explained, based on her research, "women political figures were more often identified as important inspirations to seek office by women than men, and since the Democratic Party offers more prominent women who could serve as such inspiration, this too might drive more Democratic than Republican women to emerge as candidates."

Particularly in this cycle, with a presidential matchup highlighting gender, these choices interact with broader party optics on gender as well. Citing Trump's recent comments to women that he "will be your protector," vice presidential candidate JD Vance's comments about "childless cat ladies" and other disparaging comments toward women, Cassese said "packaged together with a dearth of female candidates, it's hard for the Republican Party to make a credible case that they're working to represent female voters." Couple this with Democrats' selection of Harris at the top of their presidential ticket, and the GOP's struggle with female representation is thrown into sharper relief.

Of course, Republican women’s progress in recent election cycles has left some infrastructure and precedent for future women in the party. For her part, Nikki Haley made a point of talking about how women in politics bring something unique to the table during and after her presidential run, and groups like VIEW PAC, Maggie’s List and others plan to play in this year’s general election contests to move the needle as much as they can.

Mary Radcliffe, Irena Li and Holly Fuong contributed research.

Footnotes

*This analysis includes all primary elections in the 2024 election cycle with the exception of Louisiana, which will hold its primaries on Election Day, Nov. 5. We classified primary winners based on state-certified election results. In California and Washington, primary candidates who advanced to the general election in the top-two primary are classified as primary winners.