Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

The 2024 election was big not just for control of the federal government, but also various state governments. Before the election, Cooper identified 10 state legislative chambers that were in danger of flipping control. How did those elections turn out?

Generally speaking, pretty well for Republicans. The GOP expanded their majorities in the New Hampshire state Senate and state House, giving them a workable trifecta when paired with Republican Gov.-elect Kelly Ayotte. (Republicans technically had a trifecta in New Hampshire before too, but their majority in the state House was so narrow they had trouble getting things done.) They also expanded their majorities in the Arizona state Senate and House and kept control of the Wisconsin Assembly under a newly un-gerrymandered map, although Democrats whittled the GOP majority down to 54-45. But their biggest win was flipping control of the Michigan state House, breaking the Democratic trifecta there.

Democrats had some victories too, though. They retained their uber-narrow 102-101 majority in the Pennsylvania state House, even as Trump was carrying the state. They won the special election that determined control of the Minnesota state Senate, albeit by a too-close-for-comfort margin of 52% to 48%. And a group of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans announced they would form a coalition to govern the Alaska state House, replacing a Republican-dominated coalition.

One state legislative chamber remains unresolved: the Minnesota state House. According to the AP, Republicans have won 67 seats, Democrats have won 65 seats and two seats (House Districts 14B and 54A) are heading for recounts. Currently, Democrats lead in House District 14B by 191 votes, and in House District 54A by just 14 votes. If Democrats hold onto both leads, the chamber would be tied, and the two parties would have to hammer out a power-sharing agreement. If Republicans win just one, they would obviously win a majority. Either way, though, Democrats will lose full control over Minnesota state government.

California Republican Rep. David Valadao has ground out another tough victory in the Central Valley's 22nd District, where ABC News reports he is projected to win another term. Valadao faced a rematch with former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas, whom he beat by 3 points in 2022.

Big political shifts in the heavily Hispanic district likely helped Valadao exceed that mark this time: He currently leads by about 6 points, 53% to 47%, and while Biden would have carried this district by double digits in 2020, Trump probably came close to winning it this year (or won it outright!). With this victory, Valadao is one of just two of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump to remain in the House. The other is Dan Newhouse of Washington.

ABC News also reports that in California's 47th District, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is projected to defeat Republican Scott Baugh, a former minority leader in the state House. With 88% of the expected vote reporting, Min leads by just under 2 percentage points. Like Levin's seat next door, the Orange County-based 47th is located in relatively blue territory. (Biden won both districts by around 11 points in 2020, but the 47th was seen as a GOP pickup target after incumbent Democratic Rep. Katie Porter chose to run for U.S. Senate instead of seeking reelection.) Min, a Korean American, will represent a district whose population is more than one-quarter Asian. Democrats are now up to 208 seats in the House.

Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is projected to win reelection in California's 49th District, ABC News reports. With 86% of the expected vote now counted, Levin leads Republican Matt Gunderson 52% to 48%. This outcome is unsurprising in two senses: The 538 forecast rated this district as "Likely Democratic" before the election, and over the past week, Levin has consistently led in the count — our partners at Edison Research who project races were presumably just waiting for enough of the vote to be counted before committing to a projection. The projection is still notable, though, as it brings Democrats up to at least 207 seats in the next House.