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Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

We're tracking unresolved races in the Senate, House and more.

Last Updated: November 6, 2024, 12:47 PM EST

Former President Donald Trump has won back the White House, and Republicans have won control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. But we still don't know how big the GOP's Senate and House majorities will be, since there are still several races that don't have a projected winner. The outcomes of these elections could have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.

However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. California — home to multiple undecided House races — is still working through counting all its ballots. Other races will require ranked-choice voting to resolve. And still others, like Pennsylvania's Senate race, could go to a recount.

We at 538 will be tracking it all on this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.

Key Headlines

Here's how the news is developing.
Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 15, 2024, 11:06 PM EST

Three more House projections for Democrats

PHOTO: (D) Key Race Projected
ABC News

On Friday night, ABC News reported that Democrats are projected to win three more House seats.

In Maine's 2nd District, the secretary of state concluded four days of ranked-choice tabulations and announced that, once minor candidates' second and third choices had been allocated, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden had defeated Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault 50.35% to 49.65%.

Then, Democratic Rep. Jim Costa was projected the winner in California's 21st District. He defeated Republican Michael Maher just 52% to 48% in a district that everyone had thought was safely Democratic.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Josh Harder was projected the winner in California's 9th District. This district was expected to be a little more competitive, but Harder was still favored, and he ended up defeating Republican Kevin Lincoln 52% to 48% as well.

These victories bring Democrats up to at least 212 seats in the next House of Representatives. Republicans have won at least 218 seats. Five districts remain too close to call.

Geoffrey Skelley Image
Nov 15, 2024, 11:29 AM EST

Race in Ohio's 9th District heads to a recount

Ohio's 9th District in the state's northwest is another U.S. House race with a razor-thin margin that will head to a recount before a winner can be officially determined. There, longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur leads Republican Derek Merrin by about 0.3 points, 48.1% to 47.8%, putting the race's margin inside the state's 0.5-point threshold to precipitate an automatic recount.

Kaptur's lead in the raw vote tally is just 1,193 votes, but the race could get even closer before the formal recount process begins. That's because there are probably at least 12,000 absentee and provisional ballots that counties in the district still must tabulate before officially reporting their results to the secretary of state on Nov. 20. That said, those ballots might actually be decent for Kaptur because Democratic-leaning voters have shown a greater preference for voting absentee than GOP-leaning ones in recent years. But that may also depend on just how many votes are provisional and how many are absentee, as this is a district that Trump likely carried by 6-to-8 points this year, which could make any vote cast on Election Day (like a provisional ballot) potentially a more GOP-leaning one by comparison.

Tia Yang Image
Nov 15, 2024, 10:06 AM EST

Democrats flip a seat in Oregon

PHOTO: (D) Key Race Projected
ABC News

Biden carried this blue-leaning district by nearly 9 points in 2020, while Chavez-DeRemer won by around 2 points in 2022, becoming the first Republican to hold the seat in around 25 years. Democratic groups also spent heavily in the district's primary, with establishment forces looking to boost Bynum over Jamie McLeod Skinner, who lost to Chavez-DeRemer two years ago and was seen as a weaker general election candidate. It looks like that investment paid off for them.

Nathaniel Rakich Image
Nov 14, 2024, 3:15 PM EST

We’re still watching three ballot measures

In addition to races for Congress and state legislature, there are still three notable ballot measure elections where we don’t know the winner yet.

-In Alaska, Ballot Measure 2 (which would repeal the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election) is currently leading by a narrow margin, 50.4% to 49.6%.

-In California, Proposition 32 (which would raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour) is currently losing 51% to 49%. If it fails, it would the first statewide ballot measure increasing the minimum wage to fail since 1996.

-In Missouri, Amendment 2 (which would legalize sports gambling) is currently leading just 50.1% to 49.9%.

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