Will pro-Palestinian critics of the Israel-Hamas War vote for Harris?
Throughout this year's primaries, the Israel-Hamas war dogged Biden's reelection campaign, and the issue has inspired an intra-party conflict that Harris inherited when she advanced to the top of the ticket. The Uncommitted National Movement, a group founded by Arab and Palestinian Americans and joined by progressives, made a name for itself protesting to prod the Biden administration and Harris campaign to take a firmer stance against the Israeli military's actions against Hamas and to enact an arms embargo until Israel commits to better protections for civilians in Gaza. If the conflict siphons away support from pro-Palestinian voters who would otherwise support Harris, it's an issue that could help swing the election for Harris or Trump in a tight race.
Harris has not supported an arms embargo, but she has called for a ceasefire and endorsed a two-state solution. "President Biden and I are working to end this war, such that … Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self determination," she said during her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Meanwhile, Trump has bragged in the past about being the most pro-Israel president in history and has doubled down on support for Israel in recent weeks. After the death of Hamas's leader, Yahya Sinwar, Trump praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and said Biden was "trying to hold Netanyahu.
Americans still generally support Israel, but as the war has continued and Gaza's civilian death toll has mounted — it's now estimated to be more than 41,000 people — more have come to see Israel's response to the Hamas Oct. 7 terrorist attacks as too harsh and have become more sympathetic with Palestinians. Fewer support increased military aid to Israel and more support increased humanitarian aid to Gaza than did at the beginning of the war. And while Trump has had an advantage when it comes to who voters say they trust more to handle the conflict in the region, more than a third of Americans in a YouGov/The Economist poll from late September said they weren't sure whether Trump or Harris had been too supportive or not supportive enough of Israel, meaning the candidates might have had room to persuade voters over the last month.
For its part, the Uncommitted National Movement has declined to endorse Harris, but also communicated that they think another Trump presidency would be even worse than the status quo and urged against third-party votes, particularly in swing states. Still, the current administration's handling of the Israel-Hamas War has cost Harris some support, especially in Michigan, which has one of the largest Arab-American populations in the country. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a national progressive leader and critic of the war, pleaded on social media last week for those worried about Palestinian rights to vote for Harris, emphasizing that she would be more sympathetic to their interests than Trump. Tonight's results could tell us something about whether that argument is enough to move voters back toward Harris.