Which state is most likely to tip the election to Harris or Trump?
One of the seven core swing states is likely to be the "tipping-point" state in the 2024 presidential election. That is, if we line up each state (and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska) by how large the margin of victory is for the winner of that state — from most Democratic to most Republican, or vice versa — the tipping point is the one that hands the Electoral College winner the clinching 270th electoral vote. Each presidential race has a tipping point, regardless of whether it's a landslide or a nail-biter — although it's only likely to be closely watched, or even decisive to an outcome in the latter.
This time around, 538's presidential forecast sees Pennsylvania as far and away the most likely tipping-point state. In 26 in 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning electoral votes for either Harris or Trump. The next-most likely are Michigan or North Carolina, then Georgia or Wisconsin. Beyond them, the remaining scenarios mostly involve Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Minnesota serving as the tipping point.
Knowing there'll likely be some degree of polling error, the 2024 election could very well turn into an Electoral College blowout — even if the national popular vote is fairly close. Yet because the race seems so tight, this year's contest could also join a select group of elections that were decided entirely by the outcome in the tipping-point state. This has occurred just seven times in the 39 presidential elections from 1868 to 2020: four straight elections from 1876 through 1888, another in 1916 and two more in 2000 and 2004. Of those, the 2000 race effectively stands as the closest presidential election in history, as the decisive state (Florida) was decided by an absurdly small margin of 0.01 percentage points in favor of Republican George W. Bush.