In this year's GOP primaries, Texas Governor Greg Abbott went on a full-blown crusade, endorsing against fellow Republicans in the state House who refused to back a controversial school voucher plan that would siphon taxpayer funds from public schools and send them to private ones.
In the March primaries and May runoffs combined, the governor's efforts were largely successful: Between Abbott's endorsement power and fundraising prowess, he helped depose nine of the 16 anti-voucher Republicans who ran for reelection. Plus, other legislators he targeted retired so, in total, Abbott netted 13 more pro-voucher votes ahead of next year's legislative session.
Given that the Texas legislature's solidly Republican makeup is unlikely to change, coupled with the fact that the majority of anti-voucher Republicans are gone, Abbott should, theoretically, have the votes to pass the program next year. The only thing that could get in his way is if some of his primary-endorsed candidates (many of whom represent the far-right) are knocked down by Democrats tonight.
Here's the math: Pro-voucher Republicans are currently positioned to hold a tentative majority in the 150-member House. But the chamber's Democrats, who are largely opposed to the program, can stop this if they pick up a handful of seats in today's elections. For their part, Texas Democrats are hoping to flip at least seven seats that were redrawn during the 2021 redistricting process to make them more favorable to the party. Of course, the party has a reputation for being dysfunctional, but if they can manage to wrangle just three new seats in the state House (while not losing races elsewhere) and the remaining anti-voucher Republicans hold their votes, then the two blocs would have enough manpower to stop a voucher bill from passing.
Ahead of tonight, Abbott has put his full weight behind helping his cherry-picked Republican candidates win. And he's likely to not give up on his push for a voucher program, especially since top Republican donors have expressed a want for it despite evidence the vouchers don't always produce good educational outcomes. But voters are more torn on the issue. According to an April survey from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, 57% of Texas's likely voters said they opposed using tax dollars to provide school vouchers to parents. Legislators from rural areas, too, have long been opposed to vouchers because they represent areas where private alternatives to public schools are few or nonexistent.