A number of female candidates could flip congressional seats
The 2018 cycle was a watershed year for Democratic women, who outperformed Democratic men in their primaries. And in November of that cycle, female candidates put a nail in the "women aren't electable" coffin when they were responsible for more than 60% of the congressional seats that flipped from red to blue.
In congressional races today, a number of Democratic women are challenging incumbent Republicans in seats our forecast rates as competitive, and Democrats are hoping for a similar outcome as 2018. This includes Sue Altman in New Jersey's 7th District, who is challenging Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., and Janelle Bynum in Oregon's 5th District, who is challenging Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women currently in the House. (If Bynum wins, she will be the first Black person to represent Oregon in Congress.) In Arizona's 6th District, Kirsten Engel is challenging Rep. Juan Ciscomani.
GOP women also have a recent track record of flipping seats: In 2020, Republicans recruited women to run against vulnerable Democrats, in a strategy to flip highly competitive House districts, and many of them did defeat Democratic incumbents. There are a couple of Republican women challenging incumbents in races that our forecast suggests could be close, like Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina's 1st District, who is challenging Rep. Donald Davis, and Yvette Herrell in New Mexico's 2nd District, who is challenging Rep. Gabriel Vasquez. Buckhout and Herrell are both running in races our forecast rates "Likely Democrat," but they are still competitive.
If these Democratic and Republican women win, it could certainly add to the number of women in Congress. However, plenty of incumbent women who represent purple districts are facing challenges of their own, like Democratic Reps. Emilia Sykes in Ohio's 13th District, Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez in Washington's 3rd, Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's 7th, and Yadira Caraveo in Colorado's 8th. Republican women at risk of losing their seats include Michelle Steel in California's 45th and Chavez-DeRemer.
At stake is not just these seats, but gender diversity in Congress, which remains low. After the 2022 election, women made up just 29% of the House and 25% of the Senate. But the partisan gap is especially stark: Democratic women make up 41% and Republican women make up just 16% of their respective parties' members of Congress.
I'll be watching these races today, to get a sense of whether either party will add more women to their caucus, and if the progress women have made over the last several cycles (especially since 2018) will finally stall.