Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
Michigan gave Biden his highest margin of the three northern battleground states in 2020, but the race was still close, and it looks even tighter this year, with Harris only marginally ahead in 538's final forecast of the state.
Black and Arab Americans will play a key role in either candidate's victory. Polls have shown Black voters, who make up 13% of Michigan's electorate, swinging toward Republicans this year, though how big that shift will be remains to be determined. Michigan also has the largest share of Arab Americans in the country — a community that has been rocked by the wars in Israel, Gaza and Lebanon. Polling among the demographic — which makes up around 4% of the state's population — is limited, but the data we do have shows a major decline in support for Democrats following heavy protests over the Biden administration's response to the conflicts. Any loss of support for Democrats among these key groups could have major implications for which party ends up winning the state's 15 electoral votes.
There are also several key downballot races to watch in the Great Lakes State. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is favored to win the state's open U.S. Senate seat (currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow) over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin wins 76 in 100 times in 538's final forecast of the race — a clear advantage, but one that still leaves open the very real possibility of a Rogers win.
Michigan is playing host to multiple key U.S. House races too; the state's 7th, 8th and 10th districts are rated as competitive, though Democrats have an edge in the 7th, while Republicans are slightly favored in the 8th and 10th. Incumbent Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten has a comfortable lead in the 3rd District, though the race could still be competitive if the GOP is having a great night. The race for the state House is a nail-biter, though, with Democrats fighting to hold on to the narrow majority they won in 2022 and the state government trifecta they secured with that win two years ago.