Why Sen. Ted Cruz might be in danger tonight
Ted Cruz has established quite the reputation as a rabble-rouser; but his confrontational, and often unconventional, politicking has earned him yet another competitive general election challenge.
This isn't the first time that the two-term senator has faced a serious challenger. In 2018, Cruz narrowly eked out a win against onetime Democratic sensation Beto O'Rourke, and it's likely tonight's race will be similarly close. 538's final average of polls gives Cruz only a 4-point lead over his opponent, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.
Part of the reason why Cruz finds himself here again is because he's one of the most loathed members of Congress. He was among several Republican senators who tried to cast doubt on the legitimacy of President Biden's victory in 2020 and has refused to answer whether he'll accept the results of his own race tonight. And despite his largely unsuccessful attempts to rebrand himself as bipartisan, Cruz has repeatedly leaned into red meat and culture issues to fire up his base of Texas' most staunch conservative voters.
Texans have taken notice: According to an October poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, Cruz was viewed as more ideologically extreme than Allred. Just 26% of likely voters said they'd describe Allred as "extremely liberal" compared with 44% who rated Cruz as "extremely conservative."
Allred has worked to take advantage of this perception. During a spirited debate on October 15, the former NFL player made repeated reference to the fact that he's been rated Texas' most bipartisan member of Congress. He's also tried to paint Cruz as someone who won't work across the aisle, citing, for instance, that Cruz was among a group of Senate Republicans who torpedoed a bipartisan border legislation package in February after former President Donald Trump came out against it. Allred has also laced into Cruz for refusing to say whether he agrees with Texas' near-total abortion ban and for taking that infamous trip to Cancún in 2021 amid a weeklong storm that left many of the state's residents without power or water.
Cruz's attempts to fight back have mainly been focused on comparing Allred to Democratic bogeymen like Nancy Pelosi. And in the home-stretch to Election Day, Cruz has amped up attacks focused on Allred's support for policies supporting transgender Americans. (Allred in 2023 voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which would've cut off federal funds for athletic programs that allow transgender men to compete in women's or girls' sports.)
538's final election forecast gives Cruz about an 84-in-100 shot at winning the Senate race. And in a lean-Republican state like Texas, the race remains his to lose. But the Republican's vulnerability for a second go-around is an interesting sight to see and raises questions about whether Democrats might be closing the gap on flipping a statewide seat there — something the party hasn't accomplished since 1994.