We're tracking races for president, Senate, House and more across the country.
Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to 538's forecast, both candidates have a roughly equal chance to win.
Voters are still at polling places around the country, casting ballots to decide who controls not only the White House, but also Congress, state and local governments.
Reporters from 538 and ABC News will be following along every step of the way with live updates, analysis and commentary on the results. Keep up to date with our full live blog below!
At poll-closing time, ABC News also projects that Republicans will win Florida's Senate race and its 13th and 27th Congressional Districts. The story here is the same as the statewide call: Republican turnout is simply too high for Democratic candidates to overcome the deficit with the votes that our outstanding.
At 8 p.m., with 76% of the expected vote reporting, Harris is trailing 538's benchmarks for a tied race in the state in every single county. That's not surprising in and of itself; Florida voted for Trump in 2020, after all. But the deficit is large enough for ABC News to project that Trump will win the state's 30 Electoral College votes at the time polls have closed.
With 76% of the vote in, Harris' margin in Miami-Dade County is especially poor, lagging 538's benchmarks by 22 points.
In the Lone Star State, most political observers will be keeping an eye on the Texas Senate race (which I previewed here. But I'll also be keeping an eye on three congressional races taking places in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.
Two of these three seats are represented by Democrats — Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen are the incumbents for TX-28 and TX-34, respectively. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report suggests suggests that these two seats should remain Democratic, but the races could still be competitive. Cuellar was indicted in May on charges of bribery and money laundering, which could hurt him in the polls. Gonzalez, on the other hand, faces a comeback bid against former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores. As a result, national Republicans are pouring a ton of money into this seat to help clinch her victory. What's more, these two have gone head-to-head once before. Gonzalez unseated Flores in 2022 after serving three terms in the neighboring 15th District, which was redrawn during the 2021 redistricting process to be more favorable to Republicans.
In the 15th District, meanwhile, Democrat Michelle Vallejo is making another run against freshman Rep. Monica De La Cruz, a Republican. In 2022, this was considered one of the more competitive congressional races in Texas and De La Cruz's win was viewed as a watershed moment in Texas Republicans' outreach to Latino voters. With her victory in 2022, De La Cruz became the first Republican to ever represent the district. This year, however, it looks as though De La Cruz is more-certain to win reelection, as the Cook Political Report named this a "likely Republican" seat. But Vallejo has somewhat abandoned some of the progressive stances that made her a darling of the left just two years prior. This year, she's joined Rep. Colin Allred (the state's Democratic Senate candidate) in criticizing so-called "chaos" at the Texas-Mexico border — a pivot to the middle that angered some of her past supporters. Given that border security and immigration-related issues are top of mind for Texans, it makes some sense that Vallejo would try to moderate her views in order to attract some disaffected Republicans or independents. But it's unclear if this move will ultimately help her reach the 50% vote threshold. The available polling and fundraising we have, at least, suggests that this race is still very much De La Cruz's to lose.
ABC News projects that Trump has won the presidential race in Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. These were all states won by the former president four years ago, and states in which he maintained large polling leads through most of the contest. Together, these 5 states gain him 67 electoral votes.
2024 Election: Projections for Ala., Fla., Md., Okla., D.C., Mo., Mass., Tenn.
