Concerns about the state of the economy continue to be top of mind for voters as a whole, but in recent months another policy issue has emerged as an almost-equally high priority for Republicans in particular: immigration.
According to an August/September Pew Research Center poll, the most important issue for Trump voters are the economy (93%), immigration (82%), and violent crime (76%). Harris supporters, by comparison, said they were most concerned with health care (76%), Supreme Court appointments (73%) and the economy (68%).
It makes sense that immigration issues take center stage for Trump supporters specifically. Racist and xenophobic messaging toward immigrants fueled most of Trump's 2016 campaign and he's now promised that, if elected, he would conduct the largest deportation in American history. Republican elected officials have taken actions to amplify voter concerns about immigrants. Several GOP governors, for instance, have spent millions of dollars busing migrants out of their states and into Democrat-led cities, a move many liberals decried as dehumanizing. And during the Republican National Convention this summer, speakers spent much of their time railing against Biden's immigration policies. Perhaps the most succinct summary of where the party is now came from Kari Lake, the Republican Senate nominee from Arizona. The goal of the GOP, she said, must be to "stop the Bidenvasion and build the wall."
This rhetoric aligns with where Republican voters are on the issue of immigration. While a majority of Americans (61%) told pollsters this summer that immigrants from other countries have a largely positive effect on American society, an equal percentage of Republicans instead felt that immigrants had a negative influence.
These findings might be due to the fact that migrant counters at the U.S.-Mexico border hit a record high at the end of last year. And even though they've since decreased, the perception that there's a so-called "invasion" at the Southern border has appeared to hurt Democrats: September polling from YouGov found that voters trust Trump over Harris on handling immigration. It's unclear, of course, just how much this will buoy Trump's campaign, as 538's final forecast essentially shows the presidential candidates in a tie.
Plus, voters also place high importance on providing a path to legal status to undocumented immigrants, a policy more aligned with Harris and Democrats. In a tight race like this, it's possible that whoever can signal to voters that they have a plan to address border security while helping to develop a path to citizenship could be given the chance to implement said plans as the next president.
