Welcome!
Iowa's ready for its close-up. This evening, eyes across the nation will turn to the Hawkeye State, as Republican caucusgoers finally cast the first votes of the 2024 presidential primary contest.
We probably don't need to tell you this, but the race so far has been less than suspenseful, with former President Donald Trump maintaining a commanding lead in the polls throughout the campaign. But his competitors have been campaigning hard to keep their presidential bids alive.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is sitting in (a distant) second place after a late surge in the polls and may benefit from the recent exit of staunchly anti-Trump former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. She's pinned her hopes primarily on next week's contest in New Hampshire, but a strong showing tonight could confirm that her momentum is real. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, on the other hand, has gone all in on Iowa. He's racked up some high-profile endorsements in the state and has an ambitious ground game, but it remains to be seen if he'll be able to peel off support from some of the same support bases as Trump: rural and evangelical voters. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has similarly focused on Iowa, but an eye-catching number of campaign events in the state hasn't lifted him above the mid-single digits in the polls since August.
Another big question mark heading into today is the weather: A blizzard ground the last few days of campaigning to a halt and Iowans will need to brave harsh winter conditions and below-zero temperatures to make it to their local caucuses.
As for the nuts and bolts, caucuses will begin at 7 p.m. Central time. The first results are expected around 7:30 p.m. Central, and they'll continue to trickle in over the next few hours. In the past, winners in Iowa have been projected as soon as 90 minutes after caucuses began and as late as ... well, never. But given Trump's huge polling lead and the GOP's concerted efforts to ensure a smooth reporting process, we expect tonight's contest to wrap up on the earlier end of the spectrum.
The team from 538 will be here all evening bringing you live results and analysis as we see which candidates emerge with the delegates, the winning narratives and the snow-hardiest supporters. So keep this page open!
