Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Around 109,000 votes have been counted in Iowa tonight, and ABC News's estimated expected vote is roughly 115,000. Should that be about the final total vote tally, that'll mean roughly 5 percent of the voting-eligible population participated in the Republican caucuses. That represents a dramatic drop from 2016, when 8 percent took part in the Republican caucuses (7.5 percent participated in both the 2016 and 2020 Democratic caucuses). Even in 2012, 5.4 percent of the VEP voted in the GOP contest in Iowa, while Democrats set a record in 2008 when about 11 percent of the potential electorate in Iowa took part.

The subzero temperatures in Iowa likely played a part in why turnout fell, but the lack of a competitive race surely also diminished interest. The last time either party fell below 5 percent of the VEP in caucus turnout was in 2000, when both parties fell short. Democrats had an uncompetitive race between Al Gore and Bill Bradley (Gore won by 26 points) while Republicans had a closer contest, but one that George W. Bush still won by 10.5 points.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Haley in her victory speech just now claimed she would beat Biden by 17 points in the general election, repeating one of her favorite lines of the campaign to emphasize her potential electability advantage over the other candidates. Haley is referencing her margin in one Wall Street Journal poll from last year — an outlier poll, to be sure. 538 calculated a preliminary general-election polling average today and found Haley up just 2.7 points versus Biden. That's a bigger margin than the one for her competitors — Trump is currently ahead of Biden by 1.8 points in our average, and DeSantis trails him by 1.2 — but a far cry from 17. This is a good reminder to ignore individual polls, especially when they disagree from others, and focus on the average.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

The problem with that pitch from Haley is that voters don’t really buy it. According to a December YouGov/CBS News survey, 64 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers said they think Trump would definitely beat Biden, and another 30 percent said they think he might beat Biden. This is much better than the results for any other candidate; voters give the second-best chances to DeSantis, who 40 percent say would definitely beat Biden and 46 percent say might beat Biden.
— Mary Radcliffe, 538

As Meredith said, Haley's speech tied Trump to Biden, saying they had more in common than you might think and that most Americans don't want a Trump-Biden rematch. She said the country deserves a new conservative direction that would end divisions in D.C., and that both party front-runners were too old and mired in the past. She also said a Trump-Biden rematch would be a close election that Biden could win again. "With Kamala Harris waiting in the wings. Lord help us if that happens," she said. She said she would win against Biden in a landslide, bringing with her a solid conservative majority in the House and Senate. While it's true that most Americans seem unexcited about a repeat of the 2016 race, that doesn't mean they want a Haley nomination. Still, her speech struck the tone of someone who's ready to forge ahead.
—Monica Potts, 538