New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

A couple weeks ago, Leah Askarinam wrote an interesting article about which voters were fueling Haley's recent rise in the polls. It turns out, the answer was largely college-educated voters. Nationally, about 20 percent of college-educated Republicans were telling pollsters they backed Haley, but only about 5 percent of non-college-educated Republicans supported the former U.N. ambassador.

While nationally, college-educated Republicans still preferred Trump, in New Hampshire, Haley was actually leading Trump among that demographic:

That's good for Haley, considering that New Hampshire is one of the most college-educated states in the nation: 41 percent of Granite Staters age 25 and over have a bachelor's degree. And the electorate today is probably going to be even more educated than that. According to exit polls, 53 percent of voters in the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire were college graduates.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

According to polling conducted in December and January, Trump and Haley were about equally popular in the Granite State before the Iowa caucuses, with an average net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among primary voters of +20 and +22 points, respectively. However, in polls conducted since the Iowa caucuses, Haley's net favorability among New Hampshire Republicans has fallen notably, to an average of just +3 points, while Trump's has risen to an average of +32 points.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

If you're looking for something to do before results start coming in and you love New Hampshire politics, might I suggest listening to our 538 Politics podcast from last week. I talked to two lifelong Granite Staters who research and report on politics in New Hampshire — Neil Levesque, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, and Annmarie Timmins, senior reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin.

We talked about the competing coalitions in the current GOP race and also about some of the broader political trends in New Hampshire. It's a state where elections have remained very competitive over the years, but where Biden appears to be holding up well in hypothetical head-to-head polling against Trump in 2024.

—Galen Druke, 538

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538