Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump and Biden dominate, Haley drops out

As I mentioned earlier, 2018 was a watershed year for political ambition among Democratic women. Not only did Democratic women run in record numbers in 2018, they also outperformed Democratic men in their primaries. And in November of that cycle, female candidates were responsible for more than 60 percent of the congressional seats that flipped from red to blue. That year was a nail in the "women aren't electable" coffin.

There are a few Democratic women running tonight who are vying to do just that once again.

Next, in Texas's 15th District, small business owner Michelle Vallejo is favored to advance tonight to a rematch against Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz. Vallejo, who has endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC, lost by nearly nine percentage points in 2022, but Democratic groups have invested more in the race this time around as a top pickup opportunity. And in California's 3rd District, wildfire specialist Jessica Morse is running to face the Republican incumbent, Rep. Kevin Kiley. Morse is endorsed by EMILY's List, but not the DCCC. She and Kiley are likely to advance out of today's top-two primary, which includes a third-party candidate.

In addition to these, there are several bluer districts with incumbent-less primaries today where Democratic women will be competitive:

- Rep. Colin Allred is running for Senate, opening his seat in Texas's 32nd District. State Rep. Julie Johnson has support from EMILY's List and seems to be one of the top two candidates in a crowded Democratic primary.

- Rep. Tony Cárdenas announced his retirement in his blue San Fernando Valley district (California's 29th). Luz Maria Rivas, who has support from EMILY's List and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, should finish in the top two today.

- Rep. Barbara Lee isn't running for reelection in California's 12th District, instead vying for the Senate. Organizer and civil rights activist Lateefah Simon is a clear front-runner. She has Lee's endorsement, as well as Gov. Newsom's, and backing from EMILY's List.

- Rep. Anna Eshoo announced her retirement after three decades in Congress, opening up California's 16th District. EMILY's List is backing former Stanford dean Julie Lythcott-Haims, but she's caught in a tight race with four other strong candidates who have her beat on the spending front.

- Rep. Katie Porter is also running for Senate instead of reelection in California's 47th District. Lawyer Joanna Weiss, who has an endorsement from EMILY's List, looks to be in a contentious race with state Sen. Dave Min to become the Democratic flagbearer this fall.

Given that Lee, Eshoo and Porter are women and not all of today's female candidates are favored to advance, today's races mainly give Democratic women a chance to maintain the progress they've made in recent cycles.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

As Geoffrey said, polls just closed in our two big Eastern states tonight, Vermont and Virginia. Tonight, I'll be keeping an eye on Vermont early. Vermont is much like its neighbor, New Hampshire, in that it has the demographics that ought to be favorable to Haley. It's one of the least religious states in the country and has a high rate of college attainment. Moreover, Haley has the backing of the Republican establishment in the state. The primary is open, meaning that independents and Democrats could cross the aisle to vote for her, and her campaign has visited the state recently, hoping to drum up support. But she's still earning only about a third of the vote in recent polling, and odds are she'll be disappointed there. Since it's a winner-take-all state, she could walk away with none of its 17 delegates. As Nathaniel wrote after the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire, if Haley couldn't win there, she probably won't win anywhere.

—Monica Potts, 538

In a nationwide February survey from Emerson College, 57 percent of likely Republican primary voters who say they plan to back Haley in the primary say they would vote for Biden, rather than Trump, in November. Twenty-nine percent say they would back Trump over Biden, and 15 percent are unsure. Asked who they expect to win in November, 40 percent of Haley supporters say they expect Biden to win and 33 percent say they expect Trump to win. Among Trump supporters, just 5 percent say they expect Biden to be president after 2024, while 94 percent expect it to be Trump.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Polls have closed in Virginia, where ABC News projects that Biden will win the Democratic primary. Polls also are closing in Vermont, which could arguably be Haley's best shot at upsetting Trump anywhere this evening. We will likely start to get some returns from these states in the next 30 minutes.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

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Biden projected to win Virginia's Democratic Party primary

President Joe Biden is projected to win the Democratic primary in Virginia. There is not enough information to project the Republican primary winner in the state.

ABCNews.com