What's behind the recent wave of House retirements?

Many members of the U.S. House of Representatives are headed for the exits. And some have cited their frustrations with Capitol Hill as a major reason why. "Washington, D.C. is broken." "Any kind of respect for the institution is gone." "The unending chaos in the House really takes up most of the oxygen."

Yet despite the sense that members are leaving in droves because of congressional dysfunction, it's harder to pinpoint how much that dissatisfaction has actually affected House retirements. Although recent discord on the Hill has certainly made news and fueled the narrative that departing lawmakers are simply fed up, many are leaving for more typical reasons, such as seeking a higher office, avoiding a risky reelection bid or the impending loss of a committee leadership post.

Moreover, although the total number of representatives who've announced that they are running for another office or are retiring — that is, leaving without running for something else — is on the high side historically, it's not a record-setting figure. Recent developments in electoral politics have also contributed to a greater number of outgoing members announcing their intentions earlier in the cycle, inflating the number of total departures that have been announced almost a year ahead of the next election.

As has been the case in past election cycles, even a handful of House departures could have notable impacts on the ideological makeup of the chamber next year. Some departing members will leave open seats that are vulnerable to the other party's capture in 2024, and with the House closely divided — Republicans have a 221-to-213 seat majority (with one vacancy) — those seats could be pivotal to deciding which party holds a majority in the next Congress. And in uncompetitive seats, more progressive or conservative successors (depending on the seat's lean) could pull their parties further to the left and right.

Who's retiring and why

As of Wednesday, 33 House members had announced their retirement or launched a campaign for another office (this does not include resignations). Democrats account for 22 of these departures, compared with just 11 Republicans. The gap between the parties has mostly come down to runs for higher office, as 12 Democrats are seeking another post, compared with just three Republicans. Both parties have a similar number of retirements: Democrats have 10, Republicans eight.

The decision to leave office usually comes down to a mix of broader political considerations and individual circumstances. Beyond decisions to take a shot at winning higher office or retiring for age or health reasons, members of a party that expects to lose ground in the next election might decide to retire or run for another office — even if their seats are relatively safe — rather than see their power and influence wane in their current positions. Longer-tenured members in particular may be weighing the potential loss of a committee chair position due to a shift in party control of the House or party-enforced term limits. Electoral factors are central to other departures, as members might depart to avoid a tough reelection bid, or redistricting might change the electoral playing field and push them to retire or seek greener pastures elsewhere.

Outgoing members' press statements about why they're leaving don't necessarily tell the whole story. It's practically a given that they'll mention wanting to spend more time with family or feeling drawn to return home, but just how much those sentiments matter relative to political considerations varies on a case-by-case basis. And while the core reasons for why someone leaves office may be complicated, it's not too much of a stretch to tease out likely explanations for many 2024 departures.

For the most part, the easiest departures to understand are those of members running for higher office. Seven are seeking a promotion to the Senate following a senator's retirement earlier in the cycle. Just one of those so far is in a highly competitive Senate seat, as Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Otherwise, the prize is a safe open seat for one party or the other. For Democrats, the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's retirement (she later passed away) in California prompted Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff to run, while the departures of Sens. Tom Carper of Delaware and Ben Cardin of Maryland precipitated Senate bids from Reps. Lisa Blunt Rochester and David Trone, respectively. On the GOP side, Rep. Jim Banks is the front-runner to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Mike Braun in Indiana.

Four other House members launched Senate bids against sitting incumbents, although one of those Senate seats has since become open. In West Virginia, Republican Rep. Alex Mooney announced a run against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin just after the 2022 midterm elections, but Manchin later decided to retire instead of mounting a difficult reelection bid in his deep-red state. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is taking on Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who angered her former party's base and has yet to formally announce if she's running again. In Texas, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred aims to be his party's standard bearer in an uphill race against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Lastly, Democratic Rep. Andy Kim became the first notable primary challenger to scandal-ridden Sen. Bob Menendez, who might still seek reelection despite his toxic profile.

Meanwhile, four representatives are seeking office outside the Capitol. In Virginia, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger will step away to focus on a 2025 gubernatorial bid. To the south, Republican Rep. Dan Bishop and Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson are both running for attorney general in North Carolina. Meanwhile, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips launched a last-minute bid for the Democratic presidential nomination against President Joe Biden and later announced that he wouldn't seek reelection.

The prospect of a tough reelection campaign likely played a role in some members' decision making. In Michigan, Slotkin is leaving behind a seat that Biden would have barely carried in 2020, as is retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, which means Michigan arguably has the two most high-profile open seats on the 2024 ledger right now. Porter and Spanberger also hail from competitive districts, and each won reelection by less than 5 percentage points in 2022.

In at least one case, potential primary danger may have influenced a retirement, too. Though he's a member of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, Republican Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado has criticized his party's support for election denialism over the 2020 result and pursuit of an impeachment inquiry against Biden. His criticisms upset some conservatives in his deep-red district, and one potential primary opponent announced the formation of an exploratory committee in September. Buck announced his retirement in early November, expressing his frustration with his party and Capitol Hill.

Redistricting has pushed other members toward the exits, namely in North Carolina — though this reality could spread to other states as their redistricting battles play out this cycle. Three Tar Heel State members — Reps. Jackson, Kathy Manning and Wiley Nickel — opted against reelection bids after Republicans in the state legislature redrew the congressional map and made their seats far too red for them to have any hope of winning reelection. All three cited the new lines as the main reason they didn't run again, with Jackson opting for his attorney generalship bid and Nickel promising to explore a 2026 Senate run.

Beyond electoral concerns, the expected loss of a vaunted committee chair position likely contributed to two Republican retirements. The House GOP permits its members to serve as the chair or ranking member of a committee for only three consecutive terms (members can seek a waiver, but this rarely happens). For Texas Rep. Kay Granger and North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry, this meant the likely loss of their top positions on the House Appropriations and Financial Services committees, respectively.

Although Congress today is older than it's ever been — the median age of House members is about 58 — age and tenure are obviously factors as well. Members like Granger and Democratic Reps. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, Anna Eshoo of California and Grace Napolitano of California are all 75 years or older, and each is in at least their 13th term in the House. Republican Rep. Michael Burgess is a tad bit younger at 72, and is serving in his 11th term.

Health challenges, too, can regrettably push some members toward the exit ramp. Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton of Virginia announced in September that she wouldn't seek reelection after disclosing that she has progressive supranuclear palsy, a condition Wexton described as "Parkinson's on steroids." And beyond the possibility of another tough campaign, Kildee also cited his recent battle with cancer in his retirement announcement, noting the health scare had prompted him to "reassess" his original plan to seek reelection.

Departures have been relatively high, and earlier in cycle

At 33 outgoings as of Dec. 20, the 2024 cycle so far has a high, but not record-setting, number of departures. More broadly, it's part of a recent trend of more departures happening early in the election cycle. From 2004 to 2016, the largest combined total of retirements or runs for other offices by late December came in 2016, when 27 representatives had announced they were leaving. However, every cycle since has had more than 30 departures by this point in the election calendar. (These numbers do not include resignations, as the affected seats are typically filled by special elections.)

But it seems this trend tells us the most about the timing of retirement announcements, so we shouldn't overstate what this recent uptick may mean. Overall, the total number of House departures over the entirety of an election cycle has also seen a recent increase, being higher since 2010 than it was earlier in the 21st century. However, a longer view finds plenty of other cycles with similarly high levels of turnover in the House, such as 1992, when the House banking scandal and a greater emphasis on drawing majority-minority districts produced a record-number of 66 House members who retired or ran for another office.

The recent rise in early departures could certainly be due in part to growing frustration with the House as an institution — and the people serving in it. Studies have found that Congress has had greater difficulty solving problems in recent years, due in large part to increased political polarization. Capitol Hill has also been a more combustible environment, with more displays of anger among members. And with fame — and fundraising — driven by attracting eyeballs with outlandish statements on social media and 24/7 cable news political coverage, Congress seems like an increasingly attractive environment for boisterous "show horses" and less alluring for the "work horses" who are more interested in legislating.

Campaign factors might better explain the rise in earlier exits, though, considering the total number of departures in a cycle have not necessarily ballooned. Nowadays, it's more important for parties and potential candidates to know when someone isn't going to seek reelection, and an earlier retirement announcement gives them more time to organize a campaign and raise money. Additionally, candidate filing deadlines have slowly crept earlier into the calendar over the years as states have shifted up their primary dates and the proliferation of absentee or mail voting has extended election administration timelines. As a result, members can't necessarily wait as long as they once did to decide on their future plans.

As far as what this cycle's retirements mean for 2024, open seats on competitive turf tend to be the most vulnerable to capture by the opposition party, even as incumbents no longer enjoy a sizable electoral advantage like they once did. At this point, very few highly competitive seats lack incumbents, although the GOP has a small early edge in these sorts of districts: Based on median race ratings from election watchers at Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, eight of the 33 open seats listed here are viewed as as somewhere between remotely competitive and likely to flip to the opposite party.

Some open-seat races in 2024 could also affect the ideological makeup of the House. For instance, recent history would suggest that more conservative, Trumpier Republicans could succeed more institutionalist-minded Republicans like Granger and McHenry in their solidly red seats. On the flip side, some open, safe Democratic seats might elect members who are more firmly progressive than the outgoing incumbents.

All told, the retirement numbers for the 2024 cycle could very well rise right after this article is published. With the House having headed home for the holidays, some members pondering retirement could talk to family and friends and decide they don't want to go through another reelection campaign. The hour for such considerations is already growing short in many states — seven states' candidate filing deadlines will have passed by Dec. 20 — but time will tell just how many more add their names to this cycle's retirement ledger.