Reporter's notebook: The 'soft' Trump vote is real in New Hampshire

With six months until the Republican presidential primaries, voters in New Hampshire -- home of the first-in-the-nation primary -- are still very much undecided and eager for options that aren't the current front-runner, former President Donald Trump.

As the ABC News campaign embed covering New Hampshire, I have the unique opportunity to attend each presidential candidate event in the state and get familiar with their operations, supporters and strategy heading into the primary. The best part of my role is hearing from voters.

Recently, I had the opportunity to join American for Prosperity, a conservative free-market advocacy group, as they embarked on a large field operation. AFP deployed a group of 50 individuals on the ground in New Hampshire to canvass the state and go door-to-door talking to voters.

AFP is significantly funded by billionaire Charles Koch. The group has signaled an active role in the 2024 presidential primary as they have stated they plan to endorse a Republican candidate other than Trump. It will mark AFP's first time endorsing a presidential candidate in the primaries.

AFP's goal while canvassing is to identify issues for targeted voters and determine how likely they are to vote in the New Hampshire primary.

My goal was to hear what issues were most important to New Hampshire voters and gain insight into which candidate voters may be leaning toward.

After joining up with AFP for two days, it was apparent that the voters AFP targeted -- which include individuals who haven't voted in previous New Hampshire elections, independent voters, and Republican voters -- aren't impressed with Trump. In fact, many said they don't necessarily want to vote for Trump, but they feel like they have no other choice in the GOP field.

My consensus: The "soft" Trump vote is real. Voters are not convinced to elect Trump again. These voters are neither direct nor vocal Trump supporters. They aren't shouting from the rooftops that he is their candidate; it's not a hard "I am with Trump" -- it's a soft "maybe Trump." Some are saying they have a hard time admitting they might vote for him only because they feel there are no better options on the Republican ticket.

AFP New Hampshire State Director Greg Moore told ABC News that this is something the organization is seeing as it talks with voters across the state.

"They know that they don't want Joe Biden. A lot of them are supporting former President Trump, but among a good chunk of those people, that's weakness; that support is soft and they're willing to consider other alternatives."

Trump is still leading in the polls in New Hampshire. The former president has the support of 43% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters; Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Chris Christie trail him -- both tied at 9%, according to a recent NH Journal/coefficient poll.

New Hampshire voters' stance made me believe that they might distance themselves from voting altogether and become political runaways. This is not the case from what I saw. These Granite Staters are still very engaged. There is a pride in the first-in-the-nation primary status. All the New Hampshire voters I spoke with declared they would indeed vote in the primary.

The day before I joined up with AFP to knock on voters' doors, Trump was indicted on four felony charges. Trump's indictment may have made waves in the news, but as we canvassed the state, I learned it was not top of mind for New Hampshire voters. In fact, there was much fatigue with the former president and chaos happening in Washington.

I traveled to three New Hampshire cities with AFP to door-knock from Wednesday, Aug. 2 through Thursday, Aug. 3.

When we first started, I took a step back and watched AFP's operation unfold. The group's process is to conduct a questionnaire. The first question focused on a simple question, "what issues matters to you most?"

The answers varied. Participants across the state said the economy, education and immigration mattered most to them. Some folks mentioned bringing civility back to Washington.

Next, the canvasser asks, "If the presidential primary was held today, would you support Donald Trump or someone else?"

Here is where I learned the most. It's where a true conversation began between the AFP canvasser and individual at the door. It's where most individuals disclosed their uneasiness with the Republican and Democratic parties. The "someone else" as a candidate was the most frequent answer, yet they rarely disclosed who that "someone else" might be.

The questionnaire served as their hopeful dialogue. It was not regimented.

The household was then asked four follow-up questions ending in a civility question on whether America's best days are behind us or ahead of us. Many suggested that America's best days are still ahead of us, offering a glimmer of hope in the future.

Portsmouth, New Hampshire

The town of Portsmouth, a part of Rockingham County, leans liberal. More than 50% of people voted Democrat in the last presidential election.

Of the six voters I had in-depth conversations with through AFP, most of them leaned toward Trump, but they were very much undecided. The voters could be persuaded to support other GOP candidates, but they said they didn't feel like they had another prominent choice. Some mentioned Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but they said they did not believe he was electable. They said they believed the general election will come down to Trump v. President Joe Biden. In that case they said they would vote for Trump.

In a memo published in June by Michael Palmer from i360, the Koch-backed data company, he wrote, "41% of Trump supporters say they are open to supporting an alternative, more electable candidate. This means that while Trump is polling around the 40% mark, his true base of support is likely around 25% in these early states."

I found this statistic to be true among the people I spoke with alongside AFP.

In Portsmouth, AFP knocked on 34 doors and we spoke to eight households. The average age we spoke to was around 60 years old. Each person we talked to was unwilling to publicly talk to cameras because they were nervous to receive criticism and backlash. The recent Trump indictment news was only mentioned in two conversations, and it did not occupy the discourse.

Hampton, New Hampshire

The town of Hampton, next door to Portsmouth, New Hampshire, also leans liberal.

Hampton was vastly undecided, and they were less obligated to support Trump. They were complimentary of his policy; however, they desired another candidate that wants to differentiate themselves from Trump. These voters said they disliked Trump's rhetoric, character, and the chaos surrounding him. Voters would not disclose their choice. As the primary is still six months away, they said they were hopeful for another option. Most voters we spoke to were not supportive of Trump.

In Hampton, we spoke in-depth with four households. There wasn't a single mention of Trump's indictment.

The average age of those we spoke with in Hampton was 50-60 years old. It was a family-oriented neighborhood. We arrived in the neighborhood around midafternoon, and many were not home -- most likely still at work.

At the end of the day on Wednesday, the small group of five canvassers knocked on 143 doors and spoke with 25 households.

Manchester, New Hampshire

In Manchester, a part of Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, 52.8% of the people voted Democrat in the last presidential election.

Manchester was also vastly undecided, according to the five people I spoke to with AFP. Voter fatigue was prominent. Many of the voters were not paying attention to the race quite yet as they felt tired of the negative discourse. Individuals here were less likely to name a different GOP candidate, although North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott were referenced briefly. These individuals all declared they will vote. There was little reference to Trump, if at all.

On the second day, also the day of Trump's arraignment, AFP knocked on 56 doors and spoke to 10 households. The neighborhood was a working neighborhood full of young families. The average age was between 30 and 40 years old, however the folks we spoke to all averaged late 40s and early 50s.

'People want a choice'

After two long days with the AFP team knocking doors, it seemed evident that voters want to look beyond Trump.

Moore, with AFP, said voters in New Hampshire are looking for a change in the direction of the Republican party.

"Here in New Hampshire, we're out there every day talking to voters across the state. And what we're hearing from them is that people want a choice. They're very concerned about the direction of the country right now," Moore said.

I can confidently say I learned more on the campaign trail canvassing than I have by attending a candidate's event. I believe individuals were receptive to speaking due to the intimate setting. Households were open-minded to the media. They didn't mind being interrupted in the middle of the day. Voters would often step outside and entertain a conversation.

Our engagements differed from a typical conversation at a candidate's town hall or event where often you speak to supporters or Granite State tourists shopping the candidates. At an event, your conversations are quick and brief. It's a direct question: "Who are you voting for this cycle?"

As we delicately approached an intimate space, our conversations lasted more than 10 minutes. Individuals were more than willing to talk to the media and, in fact, were eager to do so. There was a sense of urgency to spill their secrets or bottled-up emotions.

Many said they didn't want to go on record because they feared backlash from their employer, community, family members or even their spouse. Each voter had an opinion that they said they wanted to be heard.

The bottom line -- Trump is not their first pick, but as the primary plays out, he might be their only option.