2018 early vote significantly surpasses 2014, Florida early and mail voting over 5M

Early voting numbers may be indicative of a record turnout in a midterm.

November 6, 2018, 10:39 AM

Early voting in 2018 has significantly surpassed 2014 figures, and the latest numbers released Tuesday morning by Florida election officials point to the growing popularity of both early voting and voting by mail this election.

Florida is a critical battleground state with tight races for the U.S. Senate and the governor's mansion.

From the Florida Board of Elections:

  • Voted By Mail:
  • 1,035,175 Republicans
  • 971,679 Democrats
  • 14,569 Other
  • 466,227 No Affiliation
  • 2,487, 650 total by mail

  • Voted Early :
  • 1,053,254 Republicans
  • 1,139,103 Democrats
  • 21,899 Other
  • 506,249 No Affiliation
  • 2,720,505 total during early voting

  • Total votes cast before polls opened Election Day morning: 5,208,155
  • 2,088,429 Total Republican
  • 2,110,782 Democrat
  • 36,468 other
  • 972,476 No Affiliation

Data from secretaries of state nationwide is compiled by Michael McDonald, an associate professor in political science at the University of Florida, widely cited as the leading expert on early voting.

PHOTO: Signs for candidates in the upcoming Nov. 6 election fill flower beds outside an early voting center at the City County Building in Indianapolis, Oct. 23, 2018.
Signs for candidates in the upcoming Nov. 6 election fill flower beds outside an early voting center at the City County Building in Indianapolis, Oct. 23, 2018.
Michael Conroy/AP

According to McDonald, as of last Friday, turnout in the 30 largest counties in the state of Texas, where 4,337,435 people have cast early ballots, had already surpassed the total vote (early plus Election Day) in 2014. In other words, with three days until Election Day, more people had already voted in the 30 largest counties in Texas in 2018 than did in total in 2014.

In a state with a contentious Senate race with a progressive candidate, Texans may be more motivated to vote as Democrats hope to turn the Senate blue.

Georgia is following the same trend. 2014 statewide totals came out to 1,069,912. The state has already seen a 155.4 percent uptick from that number, with 1,662,373 ballots cast as of Wednesday morning, according to the secretary of state's office.

A close gubernatorial race is unfolding in that state between current Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams. If Abrams wins, she would be the first female African-American governor in the nation.

Kemp, who is backed by President Donald Trump has advocated for stronger voter identification laws and has faced criticism over the more than 53,000 voter applications that were put on hold due to the state’s restrictive “exact match” laws – regulations which require voters' information on the rolls exactly match their government-issued identification. A coalition of civil rights groups has sued over the law which they say disenfranchises minority voters.

If Abrams hopes to win, she’ll need those votes.

McDonald breaks down the numbers by state, mail-in and in-person ballots.

Overall, as of Friday, early vote numbers were far higher than in 2014:

-Total ballots cast as of 11/2/18: 30,257,820

-Total ballots cast as of 11/02/14: 17,000,000

While these numbers represent a huge uptick in the early vote -- a strong signal of enthusiasm -- it also is a result of many states expanding early voting opportunities.

As of Friday morning, 27 states plus the District of Columbia had surpassed their 2014 early vote totals, with four days remaining until Election Day.

McDonald said on Twitter he estimates more to join this list.

In Arizona, home to one of this cycle's most competitive U.S. Senate races, Republicans make up 42.3 percent of the early ballots cast, while Democrats comprise 33.7 percent, as of Friday.

In Georgia, the youth share of the early voting electorate (18-29) has doubled compared to the last midterm election in the state, from 4 percent in 2014 to 9.4 percent in 2018. In total, 1,830,026 early ballots had been cast in the Peach State, as of Friday.

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