Jan. 6 is back in the headlines a month before Election Day. Will it make a difference?

Prosecutors have alleged damning new details about Donald Trump's conduct.

October 4, 2024, 12:57 PM

Extensive new evidence laid out in a court filing this week has thrust Jan. 6 and Donald Trump's continued election denialism back into the spotlight with little more than a month left before Election Day.

But will it have an impact on the razor-thin race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris?

In the filing, special counsel Jack Smith provided what could be damning details of Trump's alleged efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss and his actions during the attack on the U.S. Capitol.

According to prosecutors, Trump told members of his family, "It doesn't matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell." When then-Vice President Mike Pence was rushed to a secure location in the Capitol as rioters stormed the building, prosecutors alleged Trump turned to an aide and said, "So what?"

Trump claims the Smith filing (unsealed at the discretion of Judge Tanya Chutkan) is "election interference." He also called it a "hit job" and said it was only released because accepting election results came up at the the vice presidential debate.

A day after the filing was released, Trump again pushed falsehoods about the 2020 election. "We won, we won, we did win," Trump told rallygoers in Michigan. "It was a rigged election."

And in recent weeks, Trump has noticeably ramped up his rhetoric to sow doubt on the 2024 outcome.

Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Saginaw Valley State University, Oct. 3, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

ABC News polls after each of Trump's four indictments showed Americans viewed the federal election interference case as the most serious. At the time, 65% of adults thought the charges levied by Smith were serious, including 51% who said they were very serious.

Plus, surveys show most of the public views Jan. 6 unfavorably and that voters see democracy as a key 2024 issue, though it typically ranks below the economy and immigration.

Still, Trump managed to avoid any major change in the polls following Smith's election interference indictment. Many Republicans now believe the 2020 election was illegitimate and their views of Jan. 6 have softened in the three years since the violence unfolded.

"It reinforces what people already believe," Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, said about the Smith filing. "Democracy is one of the top issues for Democrats, but not for Republicans. And so it'll simply fortify their belief that Trump is a threat to democracy, but Republicans will dismiss it and downplay it as old news."

Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who advised Trump's 2016 transition team, similarly doubted there will be any noticeable effect from the filing despite its "hard-hitting revelations."

"It is unlikely that there's going to be much impact from it at all because voters have been desensitized over the negative headlines that Trump has had over the course of his career," Bonjean said.

For any other candidate or in another election cycle, Bonjean said, the filing would be "an earthquake, earth shattering -- and now it's a parking ticket."

Pro-Trump supporters storm the U.S. Capitol following a rally with President Donald Trump on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC.
Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Others said the fallout remains to be seen.

"The question is, does this latest reminder about Jan. 6 push even more voters to say, 'I've had enough, we've got to turn the page?'" said Jim Kessler, co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way. "At this point we can make conjectures but I don't think we know."

"Clearly this is front-page news and there is enough new here to make this last in the news cycle for a while," Kessler added. "But we haven't yet found where the tipping point is for the latest set of undecided voters or even some lean Trump voters."

Alex Conant, a Republican consultant, said in a close election "anything can have an impact" and that Jan. 6 is not a winning issue for the GOP.

"I think the details of this are uncomfortable for Republicans," he said. "You even saw that JD Vance didn't want to talk about it at the debate, and it was his worst moment of the night. To the extent that this puts the issue front and center forces Republicans to get asked about it again and that's not helpful for the Trump campaign."

"That all said, I think voters have largely made up their mind about Donald Trump," Conant added. "His numbers are the stickiest things in politics. This may be unlikely to persuade anybody but it helps energize an already energized Democratic base."

Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns alongside former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-WY), in Ripon, Wisconsin, October 3, 2024.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

The Harris campaign quickly seized on the debate clash when Vance refused to answer Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's question about whether he believed Trump lost in 2020. An ad was cut by the next day featuring the exchange to air across battleground states.

On Thursday, Jan. 6 was front and center as Harris campaigned alongside former congresswoman Liz Cheney in an effort to woo Republican and independent voters.

Cheney, who was vice-chair of the House Jan. 6 committee, cast Trump as "cruel," "vindictive" and unfit for office as she tore into his actions that day and reiterated her endorsement of Harris.

"We cannot turn away from this truth," Cheney said. "In this election, putting patriotism ahead of partisanship is not an aspiration; it is our duty."

Harris asserted a majority of the American people agree any leader should commit to upholding the Constitution, the rule of law and the peaceful transition of power.

"If you share that view, no matter your political party, there is a place for you with us and in this campaign because those principles, I know, unite us across party lines," Harris said. "And in this election, I take seriously my pledge to be a president for all Americans."