Nevada's swing state status unpacked as polls show close race

Despite its size, Nevada is one of the least densely populated states in the U.S, with a little more than 3.1 million residents. However, these voters will play a significant role in next week's election.

The outcome of the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will depend on voter turnout in battleground states like Nevada, which has become one of the country's most diverse.

In Nevada, 40% of registered voters do not identify as either Democrat or Republican. Despite this, the state voted Democrat in the last four presidential elections. On Friday, Harris and Trump were nearly tied in the state.

A significant portion of the votes are expected to be counted by Friday morning, with additional votes coming in through the mail over the weekend, according to Nevada Independent reporter Gabby Birenbaum.

Speaking to ABC News on Thursday, Birenbaum offered an analysis of Nevada's role as a swing state in the 2024 election as both campaigns make their final appeals to voters.

"Right now, Republicans are looking pretty strong in the state," Birenbaum said. "It's a lot of reason for optimism for them. They have a lead of just under about five points in terms of registered Republican turnout versus registered Democrat turnout. That's very different than in past cycles."

Even though Republicans are currently in the lead in Nevada forecasts, Birenbaum noted that the outcome will ultimately depend on how nonpartisans vote.

"Right now, registered nonpartisans are the biggest group in the state," Birenbaum said. "Currently, in early voting, they're just about over a quarter of the electorate. And so if you're the Harris campaign, you really need those nonpartisans to break in your favor in order to overcome some of this Republican early vote advantage"

Both candidates tried to appeal to those voters in Nevada on Thursday -- Harris held rallies in Reno and Las Vegas, while Trump spoke to supporters in Henderson, southeast of Las Vegas.

"In many ways, people think Nevada might be a blue state because it's voted for the Democratic candidate in the last four elections," Birenbaum said. "But it's truly purple. I mean, Biden won by two and a half points [in 2020], Clinton also won by two and a half points [in 2016]."