The Note: Trump effect not what GOP hoped for

The TAKE with Rick Klein

President Donald Trump took another post-election victory lap. But the Republican Party is back where it started – and still potentially off-track.

This week confirmed that the Trump effect isn’t all the GOP assumed and hoped it would be – not even inside the Republican Party.

Neither is the issue set breaking their way, in a campaign that is about as likely to be about the tax cut as it is the Space Force. Now comes the potential for a tense weekend centering on racial issues – dangerous territory for Trump, for anyone who remembers last year around this time.

None of it means a landslide, or even a wave, is a sure thing. But it has Republicans recalculating their chances, even as the Democrats see their field of challengers fill out in ways their base can coalesce around.

The RUNDOWN with MaryAlice Parks

11…so far.

After this week's primary elections, at least 11 women will be ballots on November in gubernatorial races around the country, having secured nominations from one of the two major parties.

Right now only six of the country’s 50 governors are women, only two of them are Democrats.

So far, Democrats have nominated 8 women this year.

This is historic and particularly interesting right now, when there is a renewed focus on state politics and policies, not to mention attention on the relationship between the states and the federal government.

As the federal government tries to roll back fuel economy standards as it did last week, how will states respond? As the federal government changes health care policy for people with pre-existing conditions, how will states respond? As the federal government ramps up immigration fights over a wall or deportations, how will governors respond? Tariffs, drilling, abortion access, the list goes on and on.

Big picture: Republicans are defending 26 of their 33 governships this year. Nine of the 16 Democratic governors are up for re-election too.

In total, according to the Cook Political Report, nine states have governor’s races that are total toss ups right now.

The TIP with John Verhovek

In Kansas, a battle of two Republican titans is brewing.

Governor Jeff Colyer is trailing in the state's Republican gubernatorial primary by just 121 votes after the discovery of a clerical error by the office of his political opponent, Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

It's another bizarre twist in a race that is headed toward recount territory, a decision Colyer must make next week if he is still trailing after all provisional ballots in the state have been counted, and a process Kobach finally agreed to recuse himself from Thursday evening after pressure from the governor in the form of a letter accusing him of making public statements "inconsistent with Kansas law".

But for Colyer, the risks of a recount might be less perilous than invoking the wrath of Kobach's most powerful political ally, President Donald Trump. Trump endorsed Kobach ahead of the primary, and has relished his role as political king-maker throughout this midterm cycle.

And even if Colyer advances after a recount, he must then face an electorate that gave Trump a 21-point victory in the 2016 election, having just crossed an opponent the president called a "strong and early supporter," and a "fantastic guy."

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I’m exploring a run for the presidency of the United States." --Stormy Daniels' attorney, Michael Avenatti, to the Des Moines Register during a trip to Iowa Thursday.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News’ "Start Here" Podcast. Friday morning's episode features a conversation with Susan Bro, the mother whose daughter was killed during a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia last year, ahead of similar protests planned for Washington, D.C. this weekend. Plus, ABC News’ Lauren Pearle details the long path First Lady Melania Trump’s parents’ took to US citizenship.

The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the key political moments of the day ahead. Check back Monday for the latest.