The Note: Trump falls behind country, as political realities set in

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Sometimes, even a maddeningly complex year can seem simple.

This week brought the belated acknowledgment from President Donald Trump that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to get worse before it gets better. That now means no convention next month in Jacksonville, after Trump moved his big party in the hopes of having the kind of massive gathering he now acknowledges cannot realistically happen.

But as we approach 100 days out from the election, the race's dynamics are being driven by a more basic fact: The country has for months now known that the realities are far worse than the president has acknowledged -- and has been disinclined to take Trump at his word.

Even now, as Trump pushes for schools to reopen, the new ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday morning reveals a clear majority of Americans opposed to seeing their local public schools open for in-person instruction this fall. Trump appears to be backing off of his threats to cut off federal funding to schools that don't open.

As for broader data points, the ABC News Political Unit's race ratings show former Vice President Joe Biden with an Electoral College edge -- powered in part by Trump's polling collapse in recent weeks. A Quinnipiac poll out Thursday has Biden leading in Florida -- a toss-up in the ABC News ratings, and where Trump had wanted to move his convention to -- by a startling 51-38 margin.

Another takeaway from any perusal of the electoral map is how tenuous any Biden lead is. If Trump takes just one of the upper Midwest states that he swiped from Democrats in 2016, the president's path to reelection opens up again -- and the president is pushing new policies and messaging aimed at portraying Biden as soft on crime.

Trump can and surely will try out new tones from now through the next 100 days. Biden, though, is depending on a broader sense of where the country is, and where it wants to go.

Biden's conversation with former President Barack Obama -- released by the Biden campaign Thursday -- wound toward this summation by Obama: "More than anything, it's just that basic decency and an understanding about what's best in America that I think people are going to be hungry for."

The RUNDOWN with Alisa Wiersema

Taking to the House floor on Thursday, Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez explained why she would not accept comments made by her Republican colleague, Florida's Rep. Ted Yoho, as an apology for reportedly directing derogatory language at her.

"In front of reporters, Rep. Yoho called me, and I quote, 'a f------ b----.' These are the words that Rep. Yoho levied against a congresswoman," Ocasio-Cortez said and by using the full phrase in her remarks, the freshman congresswoman ensured that the words became part of the official Congressional Record.

During his floor speech on Wednesday, the congressman apologized for the "abrupt manner" of his interaction with Ocasio-Cortez the previous day, but denied using profanity and blamed a reporter who overheard the exchange for a "misunderstanding." Yoho also said as a father and a husband, he's "cognizant" of his language, adding that he "could not apologize for (his) passion."

"I do not need Rep. Yoho to apologize to me. Clearly he does not want to. Clearly when given the opportunity he will not. And I will not stay up late at night waiting for an apology from a man who has no remorse over calling women and using abusive language towards women," Ocasio-Cortez said. Like many other women, Ocasio-Cortez said she had encountered this kind of language in daily life, and she added that "What Mr. Yoho did was give permission to other men to do that to his daughters. In using that language, in front of the press, he gave permission to use that language against his wife, his daughters, women in his community, and I am here to stand up to say that is not acceptable."

The election year moment -- in which a young woman of color described the feeling of being accosted by an older white man -- served up a metaphor of the current political environment, as a chorus of mostly women Democrats took to the floor to back the freshman progressive with similar sentiments and warnings of change on the horizon. Speaking after Ocasio-Cortez, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal said the sexist and derogatory comments do not hurt the women in Congress who encounter them, but rather "say something about the caliber of person" that is in Congress. Against the backdrop of a nation still churning through a reckoning over race relations, Jayapal added that out of the 11,000 people who have served in Congress, only 79 are women of color.

"We are not going away. There are going to be more of us here. There is going to be more power in the hands of women across this country. And we are going to continue to speak up," she said.

The TIP with Justin Gomez

Vice President Mike Pence is headed to his home state of Indiana on Friday, where he's scheduled to continue the Trump administration's push for schools to reopen in the fall -- despite spikes in coronavirus cases across the country.

The state reported 954 new cases on Thursday -- its highest for a single day. And one day earlier, Gov. Eric Holcomb announced that he's implementing a statewide mask mandate beginning on Monday.More than half of U.S. states, led by both Democrats and Republicans, have issued face covering requirements.

That mandate is something both Pence and Trump have said they do not believe is necessary nationwide. Trump on Sunday told Fox News that he wants people to "have a certain freedom" and Pence has said that decision should be left to the states to decide.

ONE MORE THING

School disruption brought on by the coronavirus pandemic is fueling anxiety in a majority -- 59% -- of parents who are concerned that their child is falling behind in their education, even while only 44% of adults with school-age children are willing to send their kids to school, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday finds.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News' "Start Here" podcast. Friday morning's episode features ABC News Senior Congressional correspondent Mary Bruce, who tells us how early discussions about the next coronavirus relief package have already hit a snag. ABC News' Matthew Vann and Laura Bronner from our partners at FiveThirtyEight reveal new findings about testing availability in low income areas. And, ABC News Senior Investigative reporter Aaron Katersky explains why Michael Cohen is being released from prison … again. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

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The Note is a daily ABC News feature that highlights the key political moments of the day ahead. Please check back Monday for the latest.