Bills smart to give extension to QB Tyrod Taylor
— -- It's easy to see why Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan appears thrilled by the team's new contract extension with quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Ryan knows how hard it is to win with a quarterback who spends half his time playing for the other team, to put it in the hardened vernacular of NFL coaches. Ryan was coaching the New York Jets in 2009 when rookie Mark Sanchez tossed 12 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. Taylor was smarter with the football and far more dynamic for Buffalo under Ryan last season, throwing for 20 touchdowns against 6 interceptions.
The rest of the league is less unified regarding Taylor than the Bills appear to be, but that's OK; the rest of the league isn't signing Taylor. The Bills are the ones signing him. Taylor fits what they want to do, and he is their best QB option by far. Locking in some cost certainty without going over the top on a contract seems smart, even if a decent percentage of the league isn't sold.
Ryan and Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman want to replicate the offense San Francisco used to great effect when Roman was the 49ers' coordinator under Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers' formula is a proven one in the NFL: Play stout defense; Emphasize the ground game; Use heavier personnel groups to keep opponents from getting too exotic in their coverages; and limit the number of times the quarterback takes five- and seven-step drops in predictable passing situations without the protection from some sort of play-action element.
Colin Kaepernick was a 49ers success story when San Francisco was good enough to employ that formula. Taylor proved well-suited for the approach last season. The Bills went 8-1 in?Taylor's starts when he attempted fewer than 30 passes; they went 0-5 in his other starts. The very best quarterbacks can succeed in high-volume pass offenses. Taylor probably isn't going to be one of them, but guess what? Neither are the vast majority of quarterbacks.
Forty-two NFL insiders polled in our 2016 Quarterback Tiers survey agreed that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger could consistently succeed as high-volume passers. They spread?their votes for Taylor across four of the five possible tiers, producing a 3.29 average that ranked 26th out of 33 QBs. That placed Taylor between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler, and?well below young quarterbacks who haven't produced as well as Taylor has statistically.
"There is hope he turns into a poor man's Russell Wilson," a tiers voter said, "but I don't think he can stay healthy. ?I don't think he is strong enough and he doesn't throw the ball as well, either."
The No. 1 concern seemed to be whether the 6-foot-1, 215-pound Taylor could play to his strengths as a runner without missing games (he missed two to injury last season). Voters also thought Taylor has limited skills as an every-down passer -- not just as an occasional deep-ball thrower -- that would keep him from climbing into the upper tiers.
Twenty-nine of the 42 voters placed Taylor in the third tier, which is generally reserved for legitimate starters who need greater support from their running games and defenses to succeed. There were 11 fourth-tier votes and one in the fifth tier for Taylor.
Many in the league think it's exceptionally difficult for quarterbacks to have staying power when they rely as heavily on the run as Taylor did last season, when he had 104 carries. The feeling is that quarterbacks without Cam Newton's tremendous size or Wilson's ability to avoid hits in the open field will wind up like Jake Locker or Robert Griffin III if they fail to develop as pocket passers. Newton and Wilson have advanced sufficiently as passers to approach the top tier of quarterbacks in the league's eyes. Taylor's stock will rise to the extent he is able to do the same.
"He is athletic and explosive," another tiers voter said. "I remember watching him coming out of Virginia Tech when they had the three-headed monster at running back, and I remember thinking Tyrod Taylor might be the best running back on that team, as a quarterback. He is really talented in that regard. You just can't ask him to win the games for you. He is not going to be the guy to make the great throws to bring you back and win games, but he will have some explosive plays."
Taylor has already proven he can hurt defenses as a runner and with his deep passing. His attributes in those areas helped him rank seventh in Total QBR last season at 67.8. That was better than the 60.3 average mark for qualifying quarterbacks last season. It was much, much better than the 37.6 figure for Bills QBs from 2006-14, which ranked 28th.
Given that context and the Bills' ability to win with Taylor when playing to their formula last season, re-signing Taylor had to be one of the easiest decisions Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley have made this offseason.
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