Is Joel Embiid a future superstar? Better than Ben Simmons?

ByCHAD FORD AND KEVIN PELTON
November 8, 2016, 8:30 AM

— -- Is? Joel Embiid?already a more promising young NBA prospect than his teammate Ben Simmons? And is the Philly center headed to superstardom soon?

Embiid exceeding expectations?

Let's start with a comparison to the last time we saw Embiid in game action, way back in March 2014, before a back injury ended his lone season at Kansas. You were keeping a close eye on the Jayhawks, who had both Embiid and eventual No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins on the roster. How similar is what you're seeing from him now, and how has he changed over the last two and a half years?

Chad Ford: Well, before he hurt his back (ending his freshman season at Kansas prematurely) and then breaking his navicular bone in his foot during a workout with the Cavs, Embiid was the No. 1 prospect on our Big Board and was drawing comparisons from scouts to a young Hakeem Olajuwon.

He had elite size, was a fluid athlete, could score in the paint and on the perimeter and was an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Turnovers, a tendency toward foul trouble and a lack of experience and strength were the only real concerns beyond the injuries.

So what are we seeing this season? Everything we loved about Embiid before the draft. In fact, in most ways he looks seriously improved in his strengths despite having not played basketball for two years.

He's now much, much stronger. He's on a playing-time restriction, but he is scoring more than 30 points and grabbing 10 rebounds per 36 minutes of action. He's shooting the ball comfortably from NBA 3-point range (in fact, he leads the league in 3-point shooting percentage at this early stage). He's second in the league in blocked shots per game.

So really only his lack of experience, which translates into a high turnover rate, questionable shot selection and excessive fouling, is holding him back.

Now that he's finally back, this really seems like a best-case scenario for the Sixers. He's exactly what they'd hope he could be.

Do the numbers tell the same story, compared to what we saw at Kansas in that limited sample size?

Pelton: The biggest change so far is Embiid being a focal point of the offense. We saw that at times at Kansas, particularly against overmatched opponents. With Wiggins and a deep roster, however, the Jayhawks didn't always need to play through Embiid -- and he wasn't necessarily ready for that responsibility.

If it weren't for the historic load Russell Westbrook is carrying for the Oklahoma City Thunder after Kevin Durant's departure, we'd be paying more attention to Embiid's unthinkable 40.4 percent usage rate -- nearly double the 23.4 percent of Kansas' plays he used in college. Nobody in NBA history has maintained a usage rate that high, and Embiid surely won't either as he plays more minutes and plays with more talented players like injured No. 1 pick Ben Simmons.

But he has already shown far more ability to create his own shot, and to do it with reasonable efficiency -- save for the turnovers you mentioned.

The evolution of "The Process"

Pelton:?How do you see Embiid's role continuing to evolve?

Ford: Well, Sixers fans (and even their PA announcer) aren't shying away from calling Embiid by the comical nickname he chose, "The Process." Of course, it's early -- Embiid has played a whopping four games and Simmons has played zero.

But given what we've seen from Embiid on the court and what we know Simmons can do from his career at LSU, I don't think that usage rate is going to drop off a cliff. Embiid has all the tools to be a lethal scorer in the NBA. When he gets more comfortable, perhaps only Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns will have the game and physical tools to stop him in the paint.

Once Simmons returns, his unselfish play will get Embiid easier looks, and at his size and skill I think Embiid will continue to be the focal point on offense. The Sixers need to get him, developmentally, as many touches as they can. And if he keeps progressing, he'll actually deserve them.

Comparing Embiid and Simmons

Ford:?I'm curious: Based on your projections, who do you think is the better long-term prospect: Simmons or Embiid, assuming good health? Should this team be built around Simmons or Embiid? I think both have the potential to be superstars.

Pelton: I don't know that it has to be an either/or. For all the focus on his post moves, Embiid is also a threat as a roll man, and if defenses switch a Simmons-Embiid pick-and-roll, it could result in mismatches that benefit both players. Embiid in the post and Simmons as a point forward also demand relatively similar teammates, albeit an archetype in short supply on the current Sixers roster: 3-and-D wings and point guards.

As to the question of which player I'd take going forward, barring injuries, I think Embiid is the choice. There's a reason why he was considered the top prospect in the highly touted 2014 draft before his navicular injury. The biggest question with Simmons' ceiling is whether he can create shots for himself at an elite level. Embiid is already more or less there. Would you agree?

Ford: I would agree, and I also agree that this isn't an either/or proposition. They can make each other better. I also concur with what the rest of the team should probably look like: a bunch of 3-and-D players who space the floor on the offensive end and lock down opposing teams on the defensive end. Find the right guys (the Sixers loved Avery Bradley and tried to get him before the draft) and I think this could be a very dangerous team down the road.

Embiid's impact

Ford: Which leads me to the last question. Embiid, considering he missed more than two full years of action, has been great. We'll see even more of him once the Sixers lift his minutes restriction after Christmas.

But the Sixers are still 0-5, with by far the worst scoring margin in the NBA? So what sort of impact is he really having?

Are the Sixers better with Embiid on the floor, or are we looking, so far, at a spectacular individual performance without any real impact in the outcome of the game?

Pelton: I think his individual performance is ahead of his ability to help a team for the reason you mentioned earlier: lack of high-level, 5-on-5 experience. Remember, Embiid had played only 647 minutes beyond high school before this season. You can't simulate 5-on-5 basketball in workouts, so Embiid's pattern recognition is behind his individual skills.

Embiid is certainly still helping his team. Compared to their abysmal performance when Embiid is off the court, the Sixers are 5.1 points better per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court, per NBA.com/Stats. But his skills have not yet proved enough to carry the 76ers to competitiveness, as the Sixers are still losing by 9.8 points per 100 possessions while Embiid is playing.

While that surely reflects the makeup of a roster that isn't yet built around him (and lacks Simmons), I think it's also an indication that Embiid isn't quite as valuable yet as his individual stats would suggest.