The NHL's all-surprise team

ByROB VOLLMAN
November 3, 2016, 1:11 PM

— -- There are always a handful of players who get off to a hot start through the first 10 games. At this point last season, San Jose's Joel Ward had 11 points, while Tomas Fleischmann and Nail Yakupov had 10 points apiece for Montreal and Edmonton.

The following all-surprise team is composed of players (excluding rookies) whose scoring totals far exceed what was expected of them -- based on a weighted average of their past three seasons -- and what to expect for the rest of the season.

Left wing

Richard Panik, Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 10 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
Actual: 10 games, 6 goals, 4 assists, 10 points

When almost $45 million of a team's cap space is committed to its top six players, the team needs to find ways to stretch the dollar with its depth players. With Panik, who carries an annual cap hit of $875,000, the Blackhawks have done just that.

Acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs for Jeremy Morin this past January, Panik finished last season with eight points in 30 games, but already has 10 points in 10 games so far this season. You have to go back 44 previous games -- to March 13, 2015 -- to count up Panik's prior 10 points.

Obviously, the key to Panik's unexpected success has been playing on line with Jonathan Toews all season, and with Patrick Kane for the past three. Another key is scoring on six of his 13 shots, for a league-leading 46.2 shooting percentage.

What to expect: With or without Toews and Kane, the fun is likely to end. Previously, Panik scored 47 points in 181 NHL games, which is 0.26 points per game. His 119 points in 166 AHL games works out to 0.72 points per game, which is the equivalent of about 0.32 points per game in the NHL. Panik's scoring is already showing signs of slowing down to that level, with seven points in his first five games, and three in the past five.

Center

Brad Richardson, Arizona Coyotes
Expected: 9 games, 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points
Actual: 9 games, 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points

The Coyotes are off to a slow start, but you can't blame their plucky second line composed of veteran captain Shane Doan, underrated two-winger Tobias Rieder?and the team's unlikely scoring leader, Brad Richardson.

The 31-year-old journeyman, who has never topped 31 points in any of his 11 seasons with Colorado, Los Angeles, Vancouver and Arizona, is off to an amazing start that includes a league-leading (and career-high) three points while shorthanded. He has scored in all but two of Arizona's nine games.

What to expect: Arizona's star will eventually rise, and if Richardson's newfound scoring provides him a chance to play with the team's abundance of young talent like Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Dylan Strome or Lawson Crouse, then he could ride this success to his first 20-goal season, and up to 45 points.

Right wing

Jonathan Marchessault, Florida Panthers
Expected: 10 games, 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points
Actual: 10 games, 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points

Who says you can't find value through free agency? Right now, the two leading scorers for the Panthers are Marchessault and Colton Sceviour, who have a combined cap hit of $1.7 million for each of the next two seasons.

At 5-foot-9, Marchessault is exactly the type of player whose performance is overlooked because of his size. He scored 263 points in 306 career games in the AHL, and had strong shot-based metrics in 45 games on Tampa Bay's depth lines last season.

Now, Marchessault's true potential is being unleashed on the Panthers' top line by the legendary Jaromir Jagr, and the team's best all-around player, Aleksander Barkov. Unlike Panik, Marchessault's six goals are no fluke, having come on 33 shots, which is tied for No. 13 in the NHL, as of Nov. 2.

What to expect: While few players can maintain a point-per-game pace for very long, Marchessault is capable of far more scoring than most fans realize. Marchessault scored 1.61 even-strength points per game for the Lightning last season, which is comparable to Toews (1.58). If he continues to earn top-six minutes, he can score 20 goals and 45 points this season.

Defenseman

Brandon Manning, Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 11 games, 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
Actual: 11 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points

In 2015-16, Manning scored seven points in 56 games in his rookie season, and required just 10 games to match that total this season.

Manning's reputation is one of being more of a bruiser than a scorer. He accumulated 407 penalty minutes in 194 games in the WHL, followed by 597 more in 244 AHL games. Nobody expected him to be tied for seventh among NHL defensemen in scoring, nor to lead the Flyers in plus-minus by a wide margin, with a plus-five.

What to expect: The Flyers now have more blue-line options than they have had in years, and Manning was expected to be fighting to keep his spot on the NHL roster, not for the team scoring lead. Manning's job is to throw hits, not to score goals, and he is unlikely to add much more than seven additional points during the rest of the season.

Defenseman

Alec Martinez, Los Angeles Kings
Expected: 10 games, 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points
Actual: 10 games, 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points

Anze Kopitar has led the Kings in scoring for nine consecutive seasons, and now the title is being passed to ... Alec Martinez?

Martinez spent his first five seasons with the Kings as a depth option before breaking his way into the top four in 2015-16, with a career-high 31 points in 78 games. This season, he's gotten off to a hot start, with seven points in the first seven games, before the entire team was shut out for three consecutive games.

What to expect: Martinez previously averaged 0.32 points per game in his NHL career, and 0.47 in the AHL. But, his play has been absolutely outstanding so far this season, and he leads the NHL with a shot attempt differential of plus-74 at even strength, 203 shot attempts to 129. Whatever his maximum upside may be, we are likely to witness it this season.

Goalie

Al Montoya, Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 1-1-0, .913 save percentage, 2.38 goals-against average
Actual: 3-0-0, .955 save percentage, 1.47 goals-against average

When Carey Price was injured in November of last season, the Canadiens struggled with goalies like Mike Condon, Ben Scrivens, Dustin Tokarski and Charlie Lindgren, who combined for a save percentage of .903, a goals-against average of 2.79 and a win-loss record of 28-36-6.

This season, Montreal managed just fine in Price's early-season absence, thanks to 31-year-old journeyman backup Al Montoya. For an annual cap hit of just $950,000, the free-agent goalie posted four quality starts in four games, including a 36-shot shutout against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins on Oct. 18.

What to expect: Price is back in net and playing better than ever, making it unlikely that Montoya will be called upon for anything other than the occasional second game on a back-to-back road trip. Still, his outstanding play was critical in helping Montreal rebound from a disappointing 2015-16 season, and gives the team confidence whenever Price takes a day off.