All of the votes reporting so far in Ohio appear to be early and absentee votes, which skew liberal. That explains why both Issue 1 and Issue 2 are leading by so much right now, as Leah mentioned. That said, they are winning by such a big margin that they’ll probably still be passing even after Election Day votes are counted. The New York Times has a live model of Issue 1, and they’re expecting the abortion-rights measure to pass by 14 percentage points.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

So far, the “yes” vote is leading for both ballot measures, but with 14 percent of the expected vote reported, we’re seeing 66 percent support for Issue 1, which would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, and 58 percent support for Issue 2, which would legalize recreational marijuana (with limitations).

— Leah Askarinam, 538

Democrats face test in Kentucky governor's race:

ABC News projects that Coleman will win the Kentucky Attorney General's race. It's the second projected statewide win for Republicans tonight. But as Nathaniel and Elliott noted earlier, Beshear otherwise seems to be over-performing his 2019 numbers in some parts of the state. That may include Breathitt County, which he won in 2019 by two points but is leading tonight 61 to 39 percent over Cameron, with 83 percent of the expected votes in. Breathitt County, in Eastern Kentucky, was hit hard by flooding last year, and Beshear's performance in leading the recovery could account for better-than-expected results there. Overall, Beshear is ahead 53 to 47 percent in the state, with 45 percent of the expected vote reported.

—Monica Potts, 538

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, abortion rights issues have won every time they’ve been on the ballot. Tonight, we’ll see if that trend holds as Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution.

But more broadly, abortion rights proved to be a motivator for Democratic voters in last year’s midterm elections, helping propel their party to better-than-expected midterm election results. Abortion remains an important issue for Democrats: 86 percent view it as very or somewhat important in the Oct. 25 weekly YouGov/The Economist poll. It’s a sharp contrast to Republicans, who are much less likely to support abortion rights than the general electorate, and also less likely to rank it as an important issue: only 68 percent did so in the YouGov/Economist poll.

That could keep Democrats likely to show up at the polls even when abortion is only implicitly on the ballot, like in Virginia, where Republicans have a chance to win full control of the state government. Hoping to drive turnout, Virginia Democrats have campaigned on abortion rights in competitive legislative districts this year, warning voters that Virginia could join other Southern, Republican-led states in banning abortion. Republicans in the state have denounced these efforts as fearmongering.

If the Ohio abortion-rights amendment wins and Democrats once again outperform expectations in other elections, it could be a sign that abortion is still driving Democrats to the polls. But no matter what happens tonight, abortion will likely continue to shape the presidential primary and election season that begins next year.

—Monica Potts, 538