Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
A strong start for liberals in Ohio
All of the votes reporting so far in Ohio appear to be early and absentee votes, which skew liberal. That explains why both Issue 1 and Issue 2 are leading by so much right now, as Leah mentioned. That said, they are winning by such a big margin that they’ll probably still be passing even after Election Day votes are counted. The New York Times has a live model of Issue 1, and they’re expecting the abortion-rights measure to pass by 14 percentage points.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
More Ohio voters are supporting Issue 1 than Issue 2
So far, the “yes” vote is leading for both ballot measures, but with 14 percent of the expected vote reported, we’re seeing 66 percent support for Issue 1, which would enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, and 58 percent support for Issue 2, which would legalize recreational marijuana (with limitations).
— Leah Askarinam, 538
It’s looking good for Democrats in Kentucky
Democrats face test in Kentucky governor's race:
Another projection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Coleman will win the Kentucky Attorney General's race. It's the second projected statewide win for Republicans tonight. But as Nathaniel and Elliott noted earlier, Beshear otherwise seems to be over-performing his 2019 numbers in some parts of the state. That may include Breathitt County, which he won in 2019 by two points but is leading tonight 61 to 39 percent over Cameron, with 83 percent of the expected votes in. Breathitt County, in Eastern Kentucky, was hit hard by flooding last year, and Beshear's performance in leading the recovery could account for better-than-expected results there. Overall, Beshear is ahead 53 to 47 percent in the state, with 45 percent of the expected vote reported.
—Monica Potts, 538
In Ohio, a turnout advantage for Democrats
As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.
The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538