As Meredith and Monica noted, Haley really emphasized electability in her speech. The difficulty with that argument is that poll after poll shows Republicans think Trump is electable in the general. For example, this YouGov/The Economist poll from early January shows 82 percent of Republicans saying Trump would definitely or probably win the general election, but only 37 percent say the same about Haley.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Haley promised to stay in the primary race at a speech tonight just after 8 p.m., when most news organizations had projected the race for Trump. She again made her pitch as one of electability, and slightly attacked the front-runner, Trump, to cheers from the crowd. "The worst kept secret in politics is how badly the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump," she said, saying Biden could defeat him but that she could win. With Trump, the story is court cases, chaos, and senior moments, she said. "I've long called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75," she said. "Trump claims he'd do better than me in one of those tests. If he thinks that, then he should have no problem standing on a debate stage with me." It's unlikely Trump would debate her, but the crowd in New Hampshire ate it up, calling Trump a loser and geriatric. "The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate will win this election," she said. We'll see in her home state of South Carolina, in about a month.

—Monica Potts, 538

Dan, I'm not sure why Trump would risk getting on stage with her, especially when he can just snipe from Truth Social or in whatever town halls get scheduled between now and then. Avoiding the debates has worked wonderfully for Trump so far, and now that he's won New Hampshire, I don't see him adjusting that strategy. I think it would take an actual loss for him to feel pressured to show up. In fact, I don't think we'll see Trump on a debate stage at all this cycle, in the primary or general election.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In her post-primary speech, Haley tries to goad Trump into a debate. The question is: can Trump resist calls to debate in the long interregnum between now and the South Carolina primary? He has resisted them so far.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538