As we often say here at 538, results that come in early on election night can be misleading. That's because if you look at just the statewide results you don't know what's left to come in from where. Currently there's only 18% of expected votes reporting — so we're nowhere near what media networks and race-callers need to project the outcome.

That being said... One thing we can do is compare how Trump is doing relative to his 2016 vote share in towns that are fully or nearly fully reporting results. I took at look at five — Concord, Weare, Seabrook, Alton, and Conway — and Trump's doing an average of 20 points better than in 2016. As a crude guess, that would put him somewhere around 55 percent of the vote. If Haley gets the remaining votes, that would shake out as a high single-digits or low double-digits win for Trump. In other words, a little better than expected for Haley.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Well, it remains to be seen by how much, but ABC News projects that Biden will win the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. We have limited returns, but "unprocessed write-ins" are clearing 70 percent at the moment, much of which will be ballots cast for Biden.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

In 2016, one of Trump's worst performances came in Hanover, which is home to Dartmouth College, and sits due north of Lebanon. Trump came in fourth place there, with just 10.7 percent, behind Kasich, Rubio and Bush. It's not a ton of votes there — just over 1,600 votes cast in the 2016 primary — but it's a place Haley needs to dominate in tonight.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Earlier, Nathaniel wrote about what would constitute a win for Trump and for Haley. But it’s worth remembering that in the 1968 Democratic primary, Eugene McCarthy surprised observers by taking 42 percent of the vote against incumbent President Lyndon Baines Johnson, who won 48 percent. Despite winning New Hampshire, by the end of the month, LBJ had dropped out of the race, famously declaring, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538