South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race
What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?
Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.
Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Answer: I'm wishy-washy on this point
I'm on the fence. As I pointed out, this would be panic-time for a sitting president running for reelection — evidence of a significant rift in the party. And it's not a mystery what that rift is — people in the Republican party who have reservations about Jan. 6, Trump's electability or his presidential temperament. At the same time, he has majority support in most polls, far outpacing any rivals.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
Question: Is Trump actually doing well?
The first few primaries to me don’t seem to suggest the kind of strength that I would expect from a universally known, pretty well-liked (within his party) former president. So, is Trump doing well in this race, or is he just doing better than Haley? And does that mean anything for November?
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Southern politics are now just politics?
The South has historically been a politically distinct region. This distinctive character — associated for a long time with strong, conservative Democratic affiliation — has been really important in explaining how the Democratic presidential nomination calendar has evolved. Super Tuesday was initially pushed to strengthen Southern influence and give an advantage to moderate candidates. South Carolina itself was moved to a more prominent spot in the primary calendar because many of its Democratic primary voters are African American — unlike in the traditional early states of New Hampshire and Iowa.
But what does this mean for Republicans? The South has been a Republican stronghold for most of the twentieth century, though Democratic presidential candidates have pulled off occasional victories. And South Carolina hasn't been a distinctly regional primary for Republicans (though Georgian Newt Gingrich won the GOP primary there in 2012). Nikki Haley doesn’t seem to be enjoying much home state (or region) advantage there. And Trump, who is from New York, is consistently popular in the South.
The larger point here is probably that, now that it’s generally in the Republican column, the South has been much less exemplary of unique regional politics, and instead has similar issue positions and priorities as other Republican strongholds.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor
The polls might’ve missed this one
Only a third of the estimated vote is counted so far, but Trump is leading Haley only 59 percent to 40 percent. If that 19-point lead holds, it would be a pretty far cry from the 28-point lead that the polls foresaw, even though they “called” the correct winner. It’s a good reminder that polls of presidential primaries historically have a lot of error.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ICYMI: What’s been happening in the GOP primary
If you're not quite as election-obsessed as us here at 538, please allow me (a person who willfully chose to spend an evening three weeks into her maternity leave watching the GOP debate) to fill you in on the last few weeks.
At the start of the year, there were still six major candidates competing for the Republican Party nomination. By the end of January, only two remained. In Iowa, Trump came out on top with 51 percent of the vote, followed by DeSantis and Haley. Ramaswamy and Hutchinson both dropped out after the Iowa caucuses (Christie dropped out just before), while DeSantis ended his campaign just before the New Hampshire primary, where Trump defeated Haley 54 percent to 43 percent.
So far, though, Haley has refused to throw in the towel, despite trailing Trump badly in polls.
She also did poorly in two additional contests in early February. In Nevada, where Trump wasn't even on the primary ballot (he was on the ballot for the Nevada GOP caucus … it was a whole thing), she still got only 31 percent, with voters preferring the electoral equivalent of "none of the above." And she lagged behind Trump in the Virgin Islands GOP caucuses, too.
I'll have more in a bit about why Haley might still be running, but suffice to say it's an uphill battle against the former president.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538