South Carolina primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to stay in the race

What can we take away from Trump's big Palmetto State victory?

Former President Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican primary, ABC News projects. It was a swift and embarrassing defeat for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who rose to political prominence as South Carolina’s governor. Nevertheless, in her concession speech, Haley vowed to continue her campaign into Super Tuesday on March 5.

Throughout the evening, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors broke down the results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Final thought: I agree she sounds like a third-party candidate

Jacob, I agree that Haley sounded a bit like a third-party candidate tonight, taking on both frontrunners. If any voters were hoping to avoid a Trump vs. Biden rematch, it seems increasingly clear that they won't get their wish. Haley is staying in and attacking both Biden and Trump as two versions of the same thing: old, out of touch and not ready to take the country into the future. She still hasn't fully attacked Trump for his role in Jan. 6 and the court cases against him, which might win her some points with the non-Republican electorate, and it hasn't worked for her so far to try to make the age case against him. I don't think any of this will work, but we'll also have to see how Super Tuesday unfolds, since she seems to be staying in.

—Monica Potts, 538


No Labels Nikki would have quite the hill to climb

If Haley is contemplating a third party bid, she’d have a lot of ground to make up. We’ve seen only two polls testing Haley as an independent, and both show her in the low double digits: SurveyUSA/Charles H. Riggs III has her at 13 percent in a 3-way race against Trump and Biden, with Trump at 45 percent and Biden at 40 percent, and Emerson College has her at 12 percent, with Trump at 42 and Biden at 37. When you throw in Kennedy, West and Stein, she drops to 10 percent in that SurveyUSA poll.

So, if she really wanted to make a go of a third party bid, she’d have to hope something pretty dramatic happened to move voters in her direction. Otherwise, it looks like a third party bid would be DOA.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


No Labels Nikki?

Haley spent a good portion of her speech attacking Trump and Biden in equal measure. It definitely raised the specter of a third-party candidacy down the line, after she loses the GOP nomination, perhaps on the No Labels ticket. Haley has said she’s “not interested in talking” with the centrist group, but that doesn’t mean she can’t develop an interest later on.

And it’s not entirely unheard of for a losing GOP candidate to launch a more center-minded independent bid for president against an incumbent Democrat and the Republican who beat them in the primary. Illinois Rep. John Anderson did just that in 1980 against Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. He ultimately won about 6.6 percent of the vote (5,719,850 popular votes, but no electoral votes).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Haley’s case on electability may not be resonating with voters

That electability case may not be resonating with actual primary voters, though. According to a January poll conducted by Monmouth University/The Washington Post, likely South Carolina GOP primary voters care more about issues than electability in choosing their nominee. Sixty-two percent said it was more important to nominate a candidate whose positions on the issues are closest to their own, while 33 percent said it was more important to nominate a candidate who seems most likely to beat Biden in November. There was little difference between Trump and Haley voters on this: 61 percent of Trump voters and 64 percent of Haley voters said that issue positions were more important, while 34 percent of Trump voters and 31 percent of Haley voters chose electability.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


ICYMI: What’s been happening in the GOP primary

If you're not quite as election-obsessed as us here at 538, please allow me (a person who willfully chose to spend an evening three weeks into her maternity leave watching the GOP debate) to fill you in on the last few weeks.

At the start of the year, there were still six major candidates competing for the Republican Party nomination. By the end of January, only two remained. In Iowa, Trump came out on top with 51 percent of the vote, followed by DeSantis and Haley. Ramaswamy and Hutchinson both dropped out after the Iowa caucuses (Christie dropped out just before), while DeSantis ended his campaign just before the New Hampshire primary, where Trump defeated Haley 54 percent to 43 percent.

So far, though, Haley has refused to throw in the towel, despite trailing Trump badly in polls.

She also did poorly in two additional contests in early February. In Nevada, where Trump wasn't even on the primary ballot (he was on the ballot for the Nevada GOP caucusit was a whole thing), she still got only 31 percent, with voters preferring the electoral equivalent of "none of the above." And she lagged behind Trump in the Virgin Islands GOP caucuses, too.

I'll have more in a bit about why Haley might still be running, but suffice to say it's an uphill battle against the former president.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538