What to make of the Biden impeachment inquiry

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives voted to formally open an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. Republicans on three House committees have been investigating the president and his family's business dealings for months now — primarily those of his son Hunter. Wednesday's vote gives the inquiry a little more legal heft, particularly with subpoena enforcement power, but it isn't likely to change how the committees have been approaching the investigation so far.

Although the GOP has just a 221-to-213 seat majority, the House passed the inquiry resolution along party lines, with all Republicans voting for the measure and all Democrats voting against it. Notably, every GOP representative hailing from a district that Biden won in 2020 voted for the bill. That could hand their 2024 challengers potential ammunition to use on the campaign trail, heading into what's expected to be a tight race for control of Congress.

While Republicans in the House were united in their support of an inquiry, the general public is much less certain. According to an average of polls conducted since October, 43 percent of Americans support opening an impeachment inquiry into the President, while 41 percent oppose such a move, a narrow split in favor of the inquiry. That's a much closer divide than at the same point during former President Donald Trump's first impeachment process, when 37 percent supported opening an inquiry and 54 percent opposed it. (Those numbers quickly inverted after the inquiry into Trump began, however.)

The partisan breakdown in these polls falls along fairly predictable lines, with most Republicans supporting an inquiry, most Democrats opposing one and independents evenly split. Intriguingly, however, the inquiry seems to have more support among Democrats than one might expect based on historical precedent. On average, 18 percent of Democrats supported opening an inquiry into Biden, while 69 percent opposed it. That level of intra-party support for impeachment proceedings is higher than the 9 percent of Republicans who supported impeaching Trump around the time when House Democrats announced their inquiry in 2019.

Public opinion will continue to take shape, but it will respond in part to what, if anything, the inquiry turns up. So far, throughout committee hearings and press releases, Republicans have yet to produce any evidence of wrongdoing by Joe Biden. While Hunter Biden faces multiple felony counts across multiple jurisdictions for various tax- and gun-related offenses, there is no evidence that the president has committed any wrongdoing himself or benefited personally from any family business deals. But House Republicans are hoping that a steady stream of news about the investigation — regardless of its fruitfulness — will continue to damage the president's already dismal image and distract from the investigations into the leader of their own party.

Ultimately, though, the likelihood of the House actually impeaching Biden is far from certain. For one, while Americans may slightly approve of opening an impeachment inquiry into the president, they're more strongly opposed to actually following through with the act. Another average of polls taken since October shows that 48 percent of Americans oppose impeachment, while 42 percent support it.

And if simply voting to open an inquiry is a potential liability for swing-seat Republicans, voting to impeach would be an even harder sell on the campaign trail. With a razor-slim majority and all Democrats sure to vote against any impeachment measure, it would be a risky gamble for House GOP leadership to make. So far, they've pulled back from any talk of actual impeachment, selling Wednesday's vote instead as more of a fact-finding mission. That seems to have helped draw support from certain vulnerable members who aren't yet fully convinced of the president's guilt (and whose constituents aren't fans of either an inquiry or impeachment).

If the investigation turns up evidence that has so far eluded Republicans' best efforts, that could change. But even if the House decides to impeach, there is next to no chance that the Democratic-controlled Senate will come up with the needed 67 votes to convict and remove the president. Unless and until that happens, Wednesday's vote was little more than showmanship.

CORRECTION (Dec. 15, 2023, 9:30 a.m.): A previous version of this article incorrectly said 9 percent of Republicans opposed impeaching Trump around the time when House Democrats announced their inquiry in 2019. In fact, 9 percent of Republicans supported impeaching Trump at that time.