What you might've missed at the RNC

Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and senior elections analyst): This week in Milwaukee, the Republican National Convention gaveled in to make the case for reelecting former President Donald Trump. After President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance last month, Trump is currently leading in the polls by about 3 percentage points nationally, and more in most key swing states — and the RNC could (temporarily) increase his lead, given that conventions have historically led to polling bounces.

WIth everything else going on, though, this convention has felt far from normal — so will it have the normal political impacts too? In this installment of the 538 politics chat, we'll discuss how the RNC is handling breaking news like the attempted assassination of Trump and the possibility that Biden will drop out of the race. But first, let me just ask you guys: How effective do you think this RNC has been overall?

Monica Potts (Monica Potts, senior politics reporter): One thing I've noticed, which I notice all the time with the Republican Party, is how similar the speakers' messages have been. They tend to touch on the same points and often even use the same wording. So almost every speaker has hit on inflation and how high it is. A lot of speakers have hit on the withdrawal from Afghanistan. And many, many speakers have decried what they call Biden's open-border immigration policies.

Of course, many of these things are exaggerated. We can argue about how presidents don't have a lot of control over prices and the complicated international causes of migration. But the fact that they use the same words over and over makes it very effective messaging. People remember it.

nrakich: Yeah, it has been a very disciplined, on-message convention — and not only that, but it has been disciplined on a message that is really good for the GOP. According to polls, voters trust Trump more than Biden to handle the economy, immigration and foreign policy. Meanwhile, there has been virtually no mention of the issues voters trust Democrats more to handle, like abortion and health care.

kaleigh (Kaleigh Rogers, politics reporter): Well, I suppose it depends on what you see as the purpose of a party convention. There are the formalities of nominating your candidate and approving a party platform, but we all know the real purpose these days is to fire up the base, trot out the party all-stars and build excitement around the party's candidate. There has been little in the way of actual policy proposals, but that's not really necessary. People just want to hear the slogans, chant and clap, and watch silly videos of Trump dancing to "YMCA." Especially with the assassination attempt so fresh on everyone's minds, I think this convention has been imbued with a lot of enthusiasm for Trump and a renewed party energy, so yeah, it's been effective.

nrakich: Do you guys think this has been more of a base convention or a persuasion convention, though? Because what Monica pointed out suggests they're reaching out to swing voters more than preaching to the choir.

gelliottmorris (G. Elliott Morris, editorial director of data analytics): I think the message they have settled on is a good one for swing voters. Republicans know that some of the more extreme policy proposals from their end of the ideological spectrum (a national ban on abortion, a 15 percent corporate tax rate) are not popular. So focusing on things like inflation, immigration and crime is smart politically. Every American is concerned about grocery prices, regardless of their ideology. Conditions were bad for a while until very recently — so the GOP is going to keep pointing that out, and they have a very good platform to do that right now by highlighting the voices of real Americans influenced by these issues.

Monica Potts: I do think they're trying to reach out to new voters. There have been speakers of color whose messages have been that Trump, and America, is not racist, whatever you may have heard! There has been messaging geared toward union families, or families that might once have been union families, which were of course long a part of the Democratic base.

One thing that struck me is how many pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps stories there were. Speakers like Sen. Tim Scott, North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (who's also the Republican candidate for governor) and of course Sen. JD Vance talked about how they grew up in poor families, but they were able to achieve the American dream through hard work, and now that's harder in Biden's America. That appeals to a traditional Republican ethos, but it's also aimed at a non-college-educated working class that is newly drifting to the Republican Party as well.

kaleigh: Oh, of those two options, I definitely feel like it's been a persuasion convention. The tone really has felt more calm and positive. Yes, there have been expected attacks on Democrats and on Biden as a candidate, but it hasn't stooped to the really nasty "American carnage"-style messaging we've seen from the MAGA GOP in the past. I think that will appeal to swing voters who are considering a second Trump administration.

nrakich: FWIW, from my perspective, I think the answer is kinda both. I've watched virtually every minute of the convention, from gavel-in to gavel-out, and one thing I have noticed is that they've started the night with a lot of red-meat speakers and then transitioned to more relatable messengers with gentler rhetoric around 9-11 p.m. Eastern when more people are tuning in.

For example, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene delivered some of her usual (anti-immigration, anti-transgender) rhetoric before 8 p.m. Eastern on Monday, and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake said the media was unwelcome at the RNC and that immigrants would illegally vote in the election in her speech around 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. But by 10 p.m. Eastern on those nights, we were hearing from a Latina woman about her economic struggles under the Biden administration and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders about what a kind person Trump is.

kaleigh: That's true, Nathaniel; they're trying to appeal to both their base and potential newcomers, and that's a smart strategy for doing that since most people aren't watching every minute of it like you.

nrakich: Are you saying I'm a freak, Kaleigh?

kaleigh: Yes. Yes, I am.

gelliottmorris: Right. The delegates see the whole convention, but the thing most people will remember is the primetime speeches. And they have been composed mostly of pocketbook economics and immigration messaging, which Trump has an overwhelming lead over Biden on.

This is a smart way to segment convention speeches. They know what they're doing!

kaleigh: You'd think they're trying to win an election with how strategic this all is!

gelliottmorris: That's crazy talk!

nrakich: I want to go back to what Monica said about reaching out to atypical voting blocs for Republicans. I was really struck by Teamsters President Sean O'Brien getting the keynote speaking slot on Monday. He was railing against corporations and advocating for workers' rights — at a Republican convention! That's something you never would have seen even 12 years ago, when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the GOP nominee.

Have you guys noticed anything else interesting about who was invited to speak this week — and, perhaps, who wasn't?

Monica Potts: Nathaniel, Vance said something similar! "[W]e need a leader who fights for the people who built this country. We need a leader who's not in the pocket of big business but answers to the working man, union and non-union alike. A leader who won't sell out to multinational corporations, but will stand up for American companies and American industry." So the union appeal feels new.

In terms of notable omissions, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, arguably the most powerful and effective Republican lawmaker of the past decade, didn't get a speaking slot. And during the roll call of states, he was even drowned out by boos!

gelliottmorris: On the very narrow point about O'Brien, I think Republicans understand that this is a time for positive messaging that supporters can use as counterarguments to criticisms from the left. The Republican Party is not aligned with labor — just look at how few of them signed onto the PRO Act in Congress last session — but unions are so popular, and "corporatism" so hot in the right-wing zeitgeist, that the GOP is going to try to lean into that type of rhetoric.

Zooming out from that, the RNC has done an effective job selecting speakers who highlight recent movement in party coalitions. For example, despite not being a pro-union party, the GOP has picked up a lot of union voters since 2012 thanks to appeals to other politics and policies (anti-immigration, politics of the "left behind" American, pro-entitlements, etc.).

The party has made gains with nonwhite and young voters, too, and wants to draw even more in. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who is 38 years old and Indian American, gave a much-applauded speech on Tuesday, and several nonwhite everyday Americans spoke too. Some polls suggest Trump will potentially double his support (yes, it starts out low) among voters of color, especially men. This is their chance to highlight that.

kaleigh: Yeah, in fact, a lot of the non-politicians invited to speak seemed handpicked to appeal to groups who may feel alienated or left behind by the Democratic Party. That includes O'Brien, but also Goya Foods CEO Bob Unanue, whose company faced a boycott campaign after he aligned himself with Trump. It includes Shabbos Kestenbaum, a recent Harvard grad who is suing the school over what he claims is a failure to combat antisemitism on campus.

I was also intrigued by the decision to invite model and Ye's former girlfriend, Amber Rose, to speak. That felt like an attempt to appeal to a younger demographic, but I'm not sure it quite landed, and the audience at the RNC didn't seem to know what to make of her, either.

Monica Potts: Agreed, Kaleigh. Rose is not that famous, and her moment was some time ago.

But there have also been other appeals to younger voters, who polls show are frustrated with the Biden administration, to say the least. For example, Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA directly appealed to them on the economy and their financial struggles.

nrakich: That's true, Monica, but I feel like any gains with young voters will be tempered by some of the strongly pro-Israel speeches the RNC featured. For example, Republican Jewish Coalition Executive Director Matt Brooks led a cheer in support of Israel and specifically said, "If someone tried that at the Democrats' convention, they'd be booed off the stage. But here, at the Republican convention, we proudly and loudly stand with Israel."

Monica Potts: Yes, that is true, Nathaniel. And some speakers brought up protests on college campuses as a sign of disorder and discord in the U.S. right now.

kaleigh: We also heard from one of Trump's grandchildren for, I think, the first time? Biden's grandchildren played a starring role at the Democratic National Convention in 2020 and did a lot of cutesy campaign work. They've also been in the public eye a lot (his granddaughter, Naomi, got married at the White House). So inviting Kai — the 17-year-old daughter of Donald Trump Jr. and his ex-wife Vanessa — seemed like a very clear attempt to highlight Trump's softer side and capture a bit of that "America's grandpa" vibe that Biden kind of has cornered. Her quip about him being a "normal grandpa" who sneaks treats to his grandkids made headlines the next day.

nrakich: I'm a downballot guy, so I'll also make note of the fact that the RNC had a "Senate candidate power hour" for the first time in a while. It wasn't in primetime or anything, but on Tuesday night we heard from Lake (running in Arizona), businessman Eric Hovde (Wisconsin), businessman Bernie Moreno (Ohio), former Rep. Mike Rogers (Michigan), businessman Dave McCormick (Pennsylvania), Rep. Jim Banks (Indiana), Gov. Jim Justice (West Virginia), Army veteran Sam Brown (Nevada), former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (Montana) and Navy veteran Hung Cao (Virginia). Interestingly, the only Republican candidate in a competitive race who didn't speak was former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who has been pretty critical of Trump, as you have to be to win a state as blue as Maryland as a Republican.

Of course, this lineup also gave us the best moment of the convention:

OK, to wrap up: As I noted, there has been a lot going on this week other than the RNC. After Trump's attempted assassination on Saturday, he and a couple other speakers said they were going to rewrite their speeches to be more unifying and turn down the temperature. Do you guys think they did that?

And, for that matter, how do you think all this drama about replacing Biden on the Democratic ticket affected the RNC's messaging, if at all?

gelliottmorris: The question I would ask is: unifying with regard to whom? The speeches from elected GOP officials so far have definitely welcomed a lot of different types of Republicans into the party, but the rhetoric on Democrats was not much more positive than it was before the events of last weekend. A speech by Peter Navarro, a former advisor to Trump who went to prison for denying a congressional subpoena in the Jan. 6 investigation, jumped out to me as old-school Trump instead of new-unity Trump. He kept saying, "I went to prison so you won't have to."

Monica Potts: To the latter question, Nathaniel, Republicans have definitely mentioned Vice President Kamala Harris often. They haven't just criticized Biden, but the two of them together. And at least a couple of speakers have referred to Harris as the "border czar" to connect her to their rhetoric about what's happening at the border. So I think they're laying the groundwork to make this her administration and policies too, if they need to run against her and not Biden.

About unity, I haven't seen a lot of explicitly unifying messages. Mostly, I've seen claims that Trump's presidency will itself unify Americans, the same way he will build a wall to close the border, stop wars and lower inflation. Empty on policy, but high on claims on Trump's abilities, which is how it's been since his first campaign.

Ramaswamy's speech was a great example of this: "But there's one more reason I'm going to ask you to vote Trump, and it's the most important one," he said. "It's the one the media won't talk about, but it's the truth. Donald Trump is the president who will actually unite this country. Not through empty words, but through action. Because you know what? Success is unifying. Excellence is unifying. That's who we are as Americans."

nrakich: Yeah, it felt to me like there were clearly identifiable pro-unity lines that (I presume) were inserted into speeches after Saturday, but none of the other text of the speeches was changed. Many speakers still framed Democrats as an existential threat to the American way of life and an enemy to be defeated.

For example, Sen. Ted Cruz said, "Every day, Americans are dying — murdered, assaulted, raped by illegal immigrants that the Democrats have released. … Democrats cynically decided they wanted votes from illegals more than they wanted to protect our children." And Sen. Ron Johnson called Democratic policies "a clear and present danger to America" — which he blamed on the teleprompter being loaded with the wrong speech.

There were also multiple chants of "Fight, fight, fight!" from the convention floor.

Monica Potts: Yes, and speakers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum have said Biden is a tool for a leftist agenda and that his administration gives power to other countries over America. (For instance, Burgum claimed that electric vehicle incentives help Chinese manufacturing.) So they are still presenting Biden's agenda as not just wrong, but a threat.

kaleigh: I get that, but I actually do think the rhetoric has been calmer and cooler than what we've seen in the past, at least from headline speakers. It's not that the RNC is shying away from criticizing Biden, but it hasn't been as dramatic.

Take Vance's speech on Wednesday. He highlighted Trump's calls for unity and calm after the assassination attempt, spoke about his family, said the Republican Party had a "big tent" and argued "our disagreements actually make us stronger." This was a pretty sharp contrast to the kinds of inflammatory comments he's made in the past, like claiming Biden was trying to "kill MAGA voters" while criticizing the president's border policy.

nrakich: Fair — I think this may be another example of the divide between early and primetime speakers.

Monica Potts: That makes sense. Something for everyone! Or that's the goal, I guess.

kaleigh: Exactly. But I personally would put more weight on the primetime speakers. People will remember what Vance and Trump said more so than Rep. Elise Stefanik.