McCarthy-aligned group hopes it hurt Gaetz's future gubernatorial chances despite his likely primary victory

A group with ties to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which has spent millions targeting Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz ahead of his congressional primary this week, concedes that the MAGA firebrand will likely win big on Tuesday -- but those close to the group say their efforts will extend beyond that race and claim they have put a dent in Gaetz's long-rumored plans to run for statewide office.

The effort marks the latest chapter in the ongoing feud between the Florida congressman and the former speaker, whose allies at the Freedom Patriots PAC have spent $3 million supporting Gaetz's Republican primary opponent, former Navy pilot Aaron Dimmock, by attacking Gaetz -- saturating his district with ads that revive past allegations, including accusations that Gaetz paid a minor for sex, and highlighting his past friendship with former Florida tax collector Joel Greenberg, who was sentenced to 11 years in prison for sex trafficking and other crimes.

Gaetz, who has denied all accusations, was informed by the Justice Department in 2023 that they would not bring charges against him following a yearslong investigation.

Tuesday's primary is also another test in McCarthy's so-called "revenge tour" against the group of eight far-right members of Congress, led by Gaetz, who played a key role in ousting McCarthy as House speaker in October -- a clash that plunged Capitol Hill into weeks of chaos as Republican members scrambled to elect a new leader.

So far, McCarthy has only had one big win from his efforts to target the so-called "Gaetz eight," helping defeat House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good in one of the most closely watched and expensive Republican primaries of the 2024 election cycle. Meanwhile, has failed to unseat others, including South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, who won her primary decisively.

And while those close to the McCarthy-aligned group anticipate that Gaetz will decisively defeat his primary challenger, who Gaetz has dismissed as a carpetbagger, they believe their campaign has already impacted Gaetz's future political prospects -- particularly his long-rumored gubernatorial run in 2026, which they say they will continue to fight against.

"We've actually hurt him ... it's not over," a source familiar with the McCarthy-backed campaign told ABC News.

In a memo circulated by the McCarthy-aligned group, a copy of which was obtained by ABC News, polling commissioned by the group shows Gaetz running third in a hypothetical Republican gubernatorial primary with 14% of the vote, behind Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody at 17% and Rep. Byron Donalds at 23%, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis unable to run due to term limits.

The survey, which was conducted in July by Republican-aligned American Viewpoint, also shows Gaetz with a higher unfavorability rating among primary voters, compared to Moody and Donalds.

Gaetz blasted McCarthy's efforts in a statement to ABC News and appeared to tease a potential 2026 run.

"Kevin spent $3 million and all he has to show for it is a memo and a stack of canceled checks. We hope he continues listening to those who told him Aaron Dimmock was viable. Floridians will teach the California former Speaker a lesson Tuesday. And another in 2026 if he likes," Gaetz said.

Gaetz, as he's campaigned for reelection to Congress, has swatted down rumors he is eyeing statewide office in 2026.

"Kevin McCarthy explicitly said that the reason he's spending millions to trash me here was to impair some future run for governor," Gaetz said at a recent campaign stop. "I've said many times, I'm not making any plans to run for governor. I like the job I have."

But some close to Gaetz told ABC News that the Florida congressman is indeed likely to run for governor in 2026, and that McCarthy's efforts will not deter that decision -- and might even motivate Gaetz to run.

"McCarthy did not do a single f---ing thing to dissuade Matt from running for governor," a source close to Gaetz told ABC News. "If that was the effort, it's been a piss-poor one."

The memo also gives credit to McCarthy allies for Gaetz being the only potential Republican gubernatorial candidate among the three who is not leading the polling in their own region, with Gaetz tied with Donalds in the Florida Panhandle, while Moody leads in Tampa and Donalds dominates Fort Myers and West Palm Beach.

"The advertising against Gaetz in his own district has clearly damaged his ability to win a Governor's race," the memo reads. The memo states that the allegation of sexual misconduct poses a threat to Gatz's potential gubernatorial bid, with his favorability dropping -- including among the MAGA base -- after respondents were informed of the accusations.

Gaetz has long denied all of the allegations, including paying for sex, and has dismissed them by claiming "someone is trying to recategorize my generosity to ex-girlfriends as something more untoward." The Justice Department informed Gaetz in 2023 that it was declining to bring charges against him.

However, Gaetz continues to face an ongoing House Ethics investigation into the allegations. In June, the House Ethics Committee provided an rare update on its investigation into Gaetz, detailing in a statement that after speaking with over a dozen witnesses, issuing 25 subpoenas, and reviewing thousands of documents, the bipartisan panel will continue to review allegations, including that the Florida congressman "engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use" and that he "sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct."

McCarthy has blamed his ouster as speaker on Gaetz, claiming it was because he refused to stop the ongoing House Ethics probe into the Florida congressman. Gaetz has blasted the House Ethics Committee, calling it "Soviet" and saying that "every investigation into me ends the same way: my exoneration."

While some early signs pointed to McCarthy allies hoping they'd have a shot against Gaetz in this week's primary, a source familiar with the McCarthy-backed campaign told ABC News that defeating him in the primary was ultimately unrealistic, and that the campaign focused its efforts on hindering Gaetz's chances at a gubernatorial run --- testing anti-Gaetz messaging that included the allegations against him while forcing Gaetz to use more of his resources in the primary.

"We feel great that we forced Matt to spend a bunch of money, and hurt him in his geographic base," the source said.

If Gaetz does run for the governorship, he can expect continued resistance from McCarthy-aligned groups, who are already briefing donors interested in working to block his path to the governor's mansion should he announce a campaign, according to a source familiar with the situation.

But Gaetz, who in recent days has made congressional campaign stops with Reps. Tim Burchett, Eli Crane, and Lauren Boebert, says that hasn't made a dent in his reelection efforts.

"I've faced an unprecedented barrage of negative advertising funded by Kevin McCarthy," Gaetz said recently. "I'll be outspent more than three-to-one, but I'm going to win it better than two-to-one because the folks in Washington and California and Missouri don't quite understand the connection I have with the people of Northwest Florida."