By Rick KleinThe 2014 midterm election is in fact about everything. A hodgepodge of issues and interests are competing for the attention of an anxious, even angry electorate, with voters set to have their say at a time of volatility for the nation and the world.
This election is looking less like a wave than a series of strong currents. Voters are pushing and being pushed in competing, even opposing, directions.
Nov. 4 will be a good night for Republicans. It will be a bad night for Democrats, though possibly not a disastrous one. Victory for them would mean keeping control of the Senate, even if it’s by a single vote, and picking up a few governorships.
BIGGEST STATE: Colorado. A blue-leaning state could swing wildly back in the red direction in a test of the country’s mood in advance of the 2016 presidential election.
BIGGEST RACE: Kentucky – Senate. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could become the majority leader – or he could be out of a job entirely.
What’s the main event?
The central drama of this election is control of the Senate. Republicans need to pick up six seats to get the 51 senators they need to take over the majority. They’re virtually guaranteed two wins, and then they need four more victories out of roughly a dozen states where Democrats hold seats.
KEY RACE: Iowa - Senate. No state better epitomizes President Obama’s political rise than Iowa, which he won twice. Yet Republican candidate Joni Ernst has used her Harley and hog-castrating skills to put Democratic control of this Senate seat in jeopardy.
The central drama of this election is control of the Senate. Republicans need to pick up six seats to get the 51 senators they need to take over the majority. They’re virtually guaranteed two wins, and then they need four more victories out of roughly a dozen states where Democrats hold seats.
KEY RACE: Iowa - Senate. No state better epitomizes President Obama’s political rise than Iowa, which he won twice. Yet Republican candidate Joni Ernst has used her Harley and hog-castrating skills to put Democratic control of this Senate seat in jeopardy.
Can I go to bed early on election night?
No. We almost certainly won’t know all the significant results Tuesday night – and might not even be able to say who will control the Senate until weeks after the fact. Polls close late and votes are counted slowly in Alaska. And laws in Louisiana and Georgia require runoffs if no candidate clears 50 percent, which would mean more weeks of campaigning.
KEY RACE: Louisiana – Senate. Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is facing two major Republicans, meaning big campaign spending on the bayou could continue until Dec. 4 if there’s a runoff.
No. We almost certainly won’t know all the significant results Tuesday night – and might not even be able to say who will control the Senate until weeks after the fact. Polls close late and votes are counted slowly in Alaska. And laws in Louisiana and Georgia require runoffs if no candidate clears 50 percent, which would mean more weeks of campaigning.
KEY RACE: Louisiana – Senate. Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is facing two major Republicans, meaning big campaign spending on the bayou could continue until Dec. 4 if there’s a runoff.
Which third-party candidates are poised to play spoiler?
Control of the Senate could come down to a millionaire entrepreneur from Kansas who’s been a registered Republican as well as a Democrat and now says both parties are broken. Or it could swing because of votes siphoned off by a 37-year-old paralegal in Georgia, or a North Carolina pizza deliveryman who says he’s considering becoming an Uber driver. As many as 10 competitive Senate races could be influenced by third-party candidates.
RACE TO WATCH: Kansas - Senate. Independent Greg Orman is taking advantage of an anti-incumbent mood in a race against Sen. Pat Roberts, and Orman hasn’t said for certain which party he’d link up with in Washington.
Control of the Senate could come down to a millionaire entrepreneur from Kansas who’s been a registered Republican as well as a Democrat and now says both parties are broken. Or it could swing because of votes siphoned off by a 37-year-old paralegal in Georgia, or a North Carolina pizza deliveryman who says he’s considering becoming an Uber driver. As many as 10 competitive Senate races could be influenced by third-party candidates.
RACE TO WATCH: Kansas - Senate. Independent Greg Orman is taking advantage of an anti-incumbent mood in a race against Sen. Pat Roberts, and Orman hasn’t said for certain which party he’d link up with in Washington.
What about control of the House?
It’s in the bag for Republicans. The only question is how large the GOP majority will be. They have 233 of the 435 seats now and are aiming for 245; they haven’t had that many since Harry Truman was president.
KEY RACE: New Hampshire – 1st Congressional District. This district has caught virtually all the waves of the past decade, and now features a rematch of a rematch, in a region Republicans want to win.
It’s in the bag for Republicans. The only question is how large the GOP majority will be. They have 233 of the 435 seats now and are aiming for 245; they haven’t had that many since Harry Truman was president.
KEY RACE: New Hampshire – 1st Congressional District. This district has caught virtually all the waves of the past decade, and now features a rematch of a rematch, in a region Republicans want to win.
Why am I hearing so much about the women’s vote?
The only way Democrats win is if they turn a gender gap into a gender gulf. But Republicans are having luck drawing so-called “security moms,” who put the nation’s safety at the top of their concerns, into their fold. And in terms of candidates, the overall percentage of women in Congress could nudge above 20 percent for the first time ever.
RACE TO WATCH: North Carolina – Senate. Sen. Kay Hagan is turning to issues such as contraception and abortion rights as she tries to drive up turnout against her male Republican opponent.
The only way Democrats win is if they turn a gender gap into a gender gulf. But Republicans are having luck drawing so-called “security moms,” who put the nation’s safety at the top of their concerns, into their fold. And in terms of candidates, the overall percentage of women in Congress could nudge above 20 percent for the first time ever.
RACE TO WATCH: North Carolina – Senate. Sen. Kay Hagan is turning to issues such as contraception and abortion rights as she tries to drive up turnout against her male Republican opponent.
Wasn’t this election supposed to all be about Obamacare?
Yes, and it still sort of is. Obamacare has long since faded as the central issue of the campaign year, but Republicans are still using its unpopularity to drive up turnout. And there may be no bigger policy question on the ballot than the future of the Affordable Care Act in states where GOP governors turned down extra Medicaid money.
RACE TO WATCH: Florida – Governor. Gov. Rick Scott was the face of Obamacare opposition. His Republican-turned-independent-tuned-Democrat challenger Charlie Crist has sought to focus attention on the Medicaid expansion in his quest for his old job back. Scott has reversed course to favor the expansion but the legislature rebuffed him.
Yes, and it still sort of is. Obamacare has long since faded as the central issue of the campaign year, but Republicans are still using its unpopularity to drive up turnout. And there may be no bigger policy question on the ballot than the future of the Affordable Care Act in states where GOP governors turned down extra Medicaid money.
RACE TO WATCH: Florida – Governor. Gov. Rick Scott was the face of Obamacare opposition. His Republican-turned-independent-tuned-Democrat challenger Charlie Crist has sought to focus attention on the Medicaid expansion in his quest for his old job back. Scott has reversed course to favor the expansion but the legislature rebuffed him.
Why do Republicans have an edge this year?
Start with turnout. Voters always show up in lower numbers in midterm years than they do in presidential years. But the drop-off isn’t uniform. The younger, more diverse, and lower-income voters who are key parts of the Democratic base are traditionally less likely to vote in congressional years. And Republicans are finding more reasons to be motivated to vote.
Arkansas – Senate. Bill Clinton’s home state has turned deep red at the national level, but men named “Pryor” keep getting sent to Washington. Sen. Mark Pryor is drawing on that family legacy in fending off a challenge from Rep. Tom Cotton, a 37-year-old Army veteran with a Harvard education.
Start with turnout. Voters always show up in lower numbers in midterm years than they do in presidential years. But the drop-off isn’t uniform. The younger, more diverse, and lower-income voters who are key parts of the Democratic base are traditionally less likely to vote in congressional years. And Republicans are finding more reasons to be motivated to vote.
Arkansas – Senate. Bill Clinton’s home state has turned deep red at the national level, but men named “Pryor” keep getting sent to Washington. Sen. Mark Pryor is drawing on that family legacy in fending off a challenge from Rep. Tom Cotton, a 37-year-old Army veteran with a Harvard education.
What does this mean for 2016?
This is the appetizer course. We could see presidential ambitions made or broken among governors up for reelection. Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio could be part of a new GOP majority. And voters’ judgments on the Obama years will spark new questions for Hillary Clinton as she mulls a presidential bid.
KEY RACE – Wisconsin – governor. A first piece of the 2016 puzzle will fall into place in Gov. Scott Walker’s reelection race. Walker will have won three times inside of four years, or he’ll be looking for a new career.
This is the appetizer course. We could see presidential ambitions made or broken among governors up for reelection. Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio could be part of a new GOP majority. And voters’ judgments on the Obama years will spark new questions for Hillary Clinton as she mulls a presidential bid.
KEY RACE – Wisconsin – governor. A first piece of the 2016 puzzle will fall into place in Gov. Scott Walker’s reelection race. Walker will have won three times inside of four years, or he’ll be looking for a new career.
What surprises may be in store in state elections?
If you think senators have tough reelection races, they have nothing on governors. Incumbency is a dangerous thing, with as many as a dozen governors – spread across both parties – in serious danger of losing their jobs.
KEY RACES – Kansas – Governor; Colorado – Governor. Two of the nation’s most prominent governors could lose in their backyards, in what would qualify as shockers.
If you think senators have tough reelection races, they have nothing on governors. Incumbency is a dangerous thing, with as many as a dozen governors – spread across both parties – in serious danger of losing their jobs.
KEY RACES – Kansas – Governor; Colorado – Governor. Two of the nation’s most prominent governors could lose in their backyards, in what would qualify as shockers.
Who are these Koch brothers people keep talking about?
They are billionaire industrialist brothers who pronounce their last name, “Coke.” They’re dumping tens of millions into backing Republicans in races across the country. But Democrats are actually beating Republicans in the money race, powered by their own billionaires and the fundraising prowess of President Obama.
KEY RACE: Alaska--Senate. The Kochs’ vast energy holdings and business dealings have become an issue Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has seized on, with ads funded by the Kochs and attacking the Kochs at the same time.
They are billionaire industrialist brothers who pronounce their last name, “Coke.” They’re dumping tens of millions into backing Republicans in races across the country. But Democrats are actually beating Republicans in the money race, powered by their own billionaires and the fundraising prowess of President Obama.
KEY RACE: Alaska--Senate. The Kochs’ vast energy holdings and business dealings have become an issue Democratic Sen. Mark Begich has seized on, with ads funded by the Kochs and attacking the Kochs at the same time.
What else is on the ballot?
Pot, guns, abortion, minimum wage – if you’re looking for hot-button issues, you’ll find them in the wide range of initiatives voters will decide. Two states plus the District of Columbia will vote to effectively legalize marijuana, and Florida will vote on allowing medical marijuana. And three states are using ballot initiatives to seek to limit access to abortions.
KEY BALLOT MEASURES: Alaska, Oregon, Washington, D.C.
– Marijuana.
A ballot measure in Alaska would make the use of marijuana legal for persons 21 years or older and would also permit certain amounts for possession, use, purchase and transport. In Oregon, a measure would permit the production, possession and sale of marijuana as regulated by the Oregon Liquor Control Commission. And an initiative in the nation’s capital would legalize the possession of up to two ounces of marijuana or six cannabis plants.
Pot, guns, abortion, minimum wage – if you’re looking for hot-button issues, you’ll find them in the wide range of initiatives voters will decide. Two states plus the District of Columbia will vote to effectively legalize marijuana, and Florida will vote on allowing medical marijuana. And three states are using ballot initiatives to seek to limit access to abortions.
KEY BALLOT MEASURES: Alaska, Oregon, Washington, D.C.
– Marijuana.
A ballot measure in Alaska would make the use of marijuana legal for persons 21 years or older and would also permit certain amounts for possession, use, purchase and transport. In Oregon, a measure would permit the production, possession and sale of marijuana as regulated by the Oregon Liquor Control Commission. And an initiative in the nation’s capital would legalize the possession of up to two ounces of marijuana or six cannabis plants.
ABC News' Erin Dooley and Ali Weinberg contributed to this project