Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis

After this weekend's projections, Republicans have clinched at least 214 seats in the next House, and Democrats have secured at least 205. That leaves 16 seats that are still unresolved, and Republicans need to win just four of them in order to win a majority.

That shouldn't be too hard. Based on what's been counted so far, Republicans have more votes in eight of the unprojected races. Democrats might be able to take the lead in a couple of these (I'm thinking California's 13th or 45th) because California still has millions of ballots left to count and those are expected to break disproportionately for Democrats, but Republicans appear well positioned to eventually win between four and six additional seats. There likely are not enough Democratic votes uncounted for them to take the lead in Arizona's 1st, Arizona's 6th, California's 22nd and California's 41st. In Iowa's 1st, Democrats are holding out hope that a combination of late-adjudicated provisional ballots and/or a recount will flip the seat to them, but it's unlikely. And in Alaska, Republican Nick Begich has a relatively comfortable lead right now, but no one really knows how the race will change when later-arriving mail ballots get counted starting tomorrow and when ranked-choice tabulations are run on Nov. 20.

In another competitive Centennial State contest, ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Gabe Evans is projected to win the House race in Colorado's 8th District. It's something of an upset: Evans had a 32.6% chance of winning in 538's final preelection forecast. He'll unseat Democrat Rep. Yadira Caraveo by less than one percentage point, and currently leads by around 2,500 votes. As House control looks to come down to just a few seats, this pickup may help Republicans retain control of the lower chamber, giving them a trifecta on Capitol Hill next year.

ABC News reports that Republican Jeff Hurd is projected to win the congressional seat in Colorado formerly occupied by Rep. Lauren Boebert (who ran in a neighboring district). The move was a risky bet for Republicans, as Boebert just barely eked out a win in 2022 before leaving to run for another seat. The move ultimately worked in her party's favor, however: With 94% of the expected vote in, Hurd leads his challenger, Democrat Adam Frisch, 50% to 46%.

As of Monday, Hurd was ahead by about 13,500 votes — a much larger margin than the approximately 600 votes Boebert won by in 2022. But, notably, Hurd overcame a massive fundraising deficit against Frisch, who had one of the largest congressional war chests in the nation. Frisch has already conceded.

Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is projected to win reelection in Washington's 3rd District. This is a Trump-friendly seat in southwest Washington that played host to one of 2022's closest races, when Gluesenkamp Perez won by fewer than 3,000 votes over Republican Joe Kent. But despite Kent returning for another bout — and with a more professional campaign — the mechanic and moderate Democrat won a more comfortable victory this time around; she currently leads Kent by 4.2%, or about 16,000 votes, with 93% of the expected vote reporting. And that's with Trump carrying the district by what will likely be a sizable margin.